35601 Line School Rd · West Carthage, NY 13619

$85,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,137 sqft · Land public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1955 15 ac lot ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful three bedroom, one bath ranch with plenty of acreage and, peaceful surroundings. The house is located within five minutes from school, and Carthage. The roof is in great shape and, the windows are all fairly new. Three year old, highly efficiency propane furnace, three year old wood stove, new water heater and, pump. One stall, detached garage. New linoleum in the kitchen and, carpet throughout. New appliances in the kitchen, microwave convection oven, refrigerator and, propane cook top.

Key facts

• Snowmobile trails
• Road frontage
• Over 15 acres

Tags

• OVER 15 ACRES
• WOODED AREA
• ROAD FRONTAGE
• SNOWMOBILE TRAILS
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN RANCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $86k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $537 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $86k).
• Recommended offer: $83k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.8% vs local median 4.3% in West Carthage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#912 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A, cost of living A-, housing B+; Watch: employment D+, health & safety D, schools F.
• Carthage Central School District (rural): math 30% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #539 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($594 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($83k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $83,323 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.80%
• DSCR: 2.19
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 44.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.37×
• Total profit: $81,033
• Equity at exit: $77,386

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.6%
• Equity multiple: 9.81×
• Total profit: $211,799
• Equity at exit: $166,885

Cash invested: $24,052 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13619

• Home prices YoY: 26.0%
• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,462 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$450
• Tax from tax record: −$132 /mo · $1,583/yr
• Insurance: −$36
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $537

Break-even live

Break-even rent $782

Max offer price $85,900

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $586	-5% $561	+0% $537	+5% $513	+10% $489
Rent	-10% $422	-5% $479	+0% $537	+5% $595	+10% $653
Rate	-1.0pp $580	-0.5pp $559	base $537	+0.5pp $515	+1.0pp $492

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,475
• Closing costs: $2,577
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-03-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-18
   price $85,900
3. 2026-03-11
   price $89,000
4. 2026-02-11
   listed $99,000 Active
5. 2011-06-20
   soldstatus $94,000
6. 2011-06-17
   soldstatus $94,000 503-char remark

   Show marketing remark (503 chars)

   Beautiful three bedroom, one bath ranch with plenty of acreage and, peaceful surroundings. The house is located within five minutes from school, and Carthage. The roof is in great shape and, the windows are all fairly new. Three year old, highly efficiency propane furnace, three year old wood stove, new water heater and, pump. One stall, detached garage. New linoleum in the kitchen and, carpet throughout. New appliances in the kitchen, microwave convection oven, refrigerator and, propane cook top.

7. 2011-03-28
   listed $95,000 503-char remark

   Show marketing remark (503 chars)

   Beautiful three bedroom, one bath ranch with plenty of acreage and, peaceful surroundings. The house is located within five minutes from school, and Carthage. The roof is in great shape and, the windows are all fairly new. Three year old, highly efficiency propane furnace, three year old wood stove, new water heater and, pump. One stall, detached garage. New linoleum in the kitchen and, carpet throughout. New appliances in the kitchen, microwave convection oven, refrigerator and, propane cook top.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,583 · $132/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,583 · $132/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥90°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,549
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,812
• − Property taxes: −$1,583
• − Insurance: −$430
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,404
• − Management: −$1,404
• − Depreciation: −$2,499
• Taxable income: $5,419
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,300
• After-tax cash flow: $5,146/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carthage Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606630
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,450
• Composite: 32.63/100
• National rank: #5668
• State rank: #539 of 590 in NY

Livability — West Carthage

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #912
• US rank: #17830

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment D+ Housing B+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Jefferson County · 47,417 people
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• Population (ZIP): 10,578
• Household income: $63,120
• Rent vs Own: 43.7% rent · 56.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 379.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Romanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 84.02%
• Current HPI: 406.9439
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-9.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-22 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $85,900 CNYIS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $89,000 CNYIS
• 2026-02-11 Listed $99,000 CNYIS
• 2011-06-20 Sold (Public Records) $94,000 Public Records
• 2011-06-17 Sold (MLS) $94,000 CNYIS
• 2011-03-28 Listed $95,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,583 · -1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.