823 E Progress St

Arthur, IL 61911

$50,900A

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 832 sqft · Built 1956 · SingleFamily · Pending · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $855/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$267
• Tax + insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$179
• Net cashflow: $256/mo
• Annual: $3,077/yr
• Cap rate: 12.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.59%
• DSCR: 1.96
• 1% rule: 1.68%
• Cash to close: $14,252

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $51k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $256 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($855 rent vs $51k).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($50k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $50k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($352 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (7.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#338 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Arthur CUSD 305 (rural): math 24% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #252 of 620 in IL (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 36 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Douglas County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (7.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.