823 E Progress St · Arthur, IL 61911

$50,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 832 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1956 8,712 sqft lot $61/sqft · 22% below area Est $65k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This cozy three-bedroom brick home in Arthur is hitting the market. It has a large detached garage and lots of possibilities. This property is being sold AS-IS. All listing information is taken from public record and is not guaranteed.

Key facts

• 8,712 sq ft lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 1956

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $51k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $256 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($855 rent vs $51k).
• Recommended offer: $50k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#338 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Arthur CUSD 305 (rural): math 24% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #252 of 620 in IL (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 36 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($352 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (7.8% local appreciation)).
• Douglas County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (7.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($50k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $50,136 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.59%
• DSCR: 1.96
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $65,198
• List price: $50,900
• Delta: -21.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
546 Dogwood Dr	0.52mi	3/1.0 (+1)	768 (-8%)	12mo	$106,000	$138	48
320 N Beech St	0.67mi	1/1.0 (-1)	730 (-12%)	22mo	$47,000	$64	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.84% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.58×
• Total profit: $36,836
• Equity at exit: $38,122

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.65×
• Total profit: $94,839
• Equity at exit: $75,155

Cash invested: $14,252 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61911

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $855 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$267
• Tax from tax record: −$131 /mo · $1,568/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$179
• Net cashflow: $256

Break-even live

Break-even rent $530

Max offer price $50,900

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $285	-5% $271	+0% $256	+5% $242	+10% $228
Rent	-10% $189	-5% $223	+0% $256	+5% $290	+10% $324
Rate	-1.0pp $282	-0.5pp $269	base $256	+0.5pp $243	+1.0pp $230

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,725
• Closing costs: $1,527
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 235-char remark

   Show marketing remark (235 chars)

   This cozy three-bedroom brick home in Arthur is hitting the market. It has a large detached garage and lots of possibilities. This property is being sold AS-IS. All listing information is taken from public record and is not guaranteed.

2. 2026-04-14
   listed $50,900 Active 235-char remark

   Show marketing remark (235 chars)

   This cozy three-bedroom brick home in Arthur is hitting the market. It has a large detached garage and lots of possibilities. This property is being sold AS-IS. All listing information is taken from public record and is not guaranteed.

3. 2022-08-24
   historical
4. 2022-08-24
   status Temporarily No Showings
5. 2022-08-19
   historical
6. 2019-11-27
   soldstatus $67,800
7. 2019-02-01
   listed Temporarily No Showings
8. 2019-02-01
   historical
9. 2018-11-30
   historical
10. 2018-10-31
    historical
11. 2018-06-30
    historical
12. 2018-03-31
    historical
13. 2017-10-31
    historical
14. 2017-06-16
    historical
15. 1998-02-20
    soldstatus $50,000
16. 1995-01-31
    soldstatus $26,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,568 · $131/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,568 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,256
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,851
• − Property taxes: −$1,568
• − Insurance: −$254
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$821
• − Management: −$821
• − Depreciation: −$1,481
• Taxable income: $2,461
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$591
• After-tax cash flow: $2,486/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Arthur CUSD 305
• NCES district ID: 1704260
• Math proficiency: 24% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,266
• Composite: 25.99/100
• National rank: #7320
• State rank: #252 of 620 in IL

Livability — Arthur

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #338
• US rank: #6790

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Arthur, IL
• Population (ZIP): 4,484

Population outlook (Douglas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,209 people
• By 2030: 18,940 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 18,397 · -4.2%
• By 2050: 17,829 · -7.2%
• By 2075: 16,395 · -14.6%
• By 2100: 14,329 · -25.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Polish 7% Portuguese 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · German/W. Germanic 35% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Douglas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.1) · D 26.1% · R 72.3% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.9pp toward R · 2008: -21.3pp · 2024: -46.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.1 2020: R+44.4 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+36.8 2008: R+21.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.84%
• Current HPI: 237.8811
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+92.1% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — CIBR
• 2026-04-14 Listed $50,900 CIBR
• 2022-08-24 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-24 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-19 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-11-27 Sold (Public Records) $67,800 Public Records
• 2019-02-01 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-02-01 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-11-30 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-31 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-30 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-31 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-10-31 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-06-16 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-02-20 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 1995-01-31 Sold (Public Records) $26,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,568 · +23.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.