8190 W Serena Dr

Arizona City, AZ 85123

$650,000D-

None bd · None ba · 2,964 sqft · Built 2002 · MultiFamily · Active · 403 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,744/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,409
• Tax + insurance: −$544
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$996
• Net cashflow: $-205/mo
• Annual: $-2,463/yr
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.53%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $182,000

Investor read

• This is a 4 × 2-bed/2-bath units multifamily listed at $650k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-205 ($-2k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-51/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $614k (5.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $474k (27.0% below list).
• It's been on market 403 days — a 12% lower offer ($572k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $474k (27.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#246 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Casa Grande Union High School District (4453) (suburban): math 14% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #193 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Arizona City Elementary School (math 6% / reading 15%, grade F, #993 of 1,109 statewide, top 91%, 744 students, 87% FRL); Casa Grande Union High School (math 18% / reading 25%, grade F, #217 of 381 statewide, top 57%, 2,132 students, 52% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: 311 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $49k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $650k implies a 584% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.2% in Arizona City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,744/mo this rent would consume 82% of the median local household income ($69k/yr) (locally 172% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 403 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?