8190 W Serena Dr · Arizona City, AZ 85123

$650,000

None bd · None ba · 2,964 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 403 Days on market

Built 2002 0.63 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.3/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 4 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Wow! Excellent Deal! Won't last... Investors- This is a Money Maker! Great Investment Property. Very nice four-plex newly remodeled with carpet, paint & appliances. North/South Exposure. Close to lake & Golf Course. Two bedroom 2 bath units. Berber carpet for durability. Washer/Dryer hookups insde laundry. Designated Parking areas. A Must See. Easy to show. NO SPDS or CLUE report will be given. Lender Owned. As is Property. Best Investment property in town. Shows Brand New.

Key facts

• 0.63 acre lot
• 8 parking spots
• Built 2002

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Tax year 2024
• HOA & community: No pool

Exterior

• Parking: 8 open paved parking spaces (total 8)
• Utilities: Electric service: APS; Public sewer; Private water source
• Home design: Fee simple ownership; Single building on lot
• Construction: Wood frame construction with painted stucco finish; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Asphalt road access; Lot dimensions approximately 300 x 91

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Disposal; Free-standing electric oven
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Heating & cooling: Central air (electric); Electric heating
• Interior features: Disposal; Refrigerator; Free-standing electric oven; Washer/dryer hookup
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4 × 2-bed/2-bath units multifamily listed at $650k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-205 ($-2k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-51/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $614k (5.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $474k (27.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $474k (27.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.2% in Arizona City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#246 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Casa Grande Union High School District (4453) (suburban): math 14% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #193 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Arizona City Elementary School (math 6% / reading 15%, grade F, #993 of 1,109 statewide, top 91%, 744 students, 87% FRL); Casa Grande Union High School (math 18% / reading 25%, grade F, #217 of 381 statewide, top 57%, 2,132 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 311 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,744/mo this rent would consume 82% of the median local household income ($69k/yr) (locally 172% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 403 days — a 12% lower offer ($572k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $49k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $650k implies a 584% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $474,400 (27.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 403 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
4. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
5. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.53%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-118,661
• Equity at exit: $96,917

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-121,216
• Equity at exit: $56,200

Cash invested: $182,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85123

• Home prices YoY: -3.2%
• Active inventory: 311
• Price-to-rent: 45.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,744 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,409
• Tax from tax record: −$148 /mo · $1,780/yr
• Insurance: −$271
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$996
• Net cashflow: $-205

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,004

Max offer price $613,740

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $163	-5% $-21	+0% $-205	+5% $-389	+10% $-573
Rent	-10% $-580	-5% $-393	+0% $-205	+5% $-18	+10% $170
Rate	-1.0pp $122	-0.5pp $-40	base $-205	+0.5pp $-374	+1.0pp $-545

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 4× units	2	2	$4,744
Total (4 units)			$4,744

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $162,500
• Closing costs: $19,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10153 W Wenden Dr Arizona City, AZ	3.0	2.0	2069	$1,675	$0.81	0d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $650,000 Active 403 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $650,000 Active 400 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $650,000 Active 399 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $650,000 Active 398 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $650,000 Active 397 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $650,000 Active 395 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $650,000 Active 394 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $650,000 Active 391 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $650,000 Active 390 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $650,000 Active 389 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $650,000 Active 386 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $650,000 Active 385 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $650,000 Active 384 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $675,000 Active 383 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $675,000 Active 382 DOM
16. 2026-04-28
    price $675,000
17. 2025-11-13
    price $689,000
18. 2025-05-14
    listed $699,000 Active
19. 2009-06-01
    soldstatus $95,000 490-char remark

    Show marketing remark (490 chars)

    Wow! Excellent Deal! Won't last... Investors- This is a Money Maker! Great Investment Property. Very nice four-plex newly remodeled with carpet, paint & appliances. North/South Exposure. Close to lake & Golf Course. Two bedroom 2 bath units. Berber carpet for durability. Washer/Dryer hookups insde laundry. Designated Parking areas. A Must See. Easy to show. NO SPDS or CLUE report will be given. Lender Owned. As is Property. Best Investment property in town. Shows Brand New.

20. 2009-04-20
    historical 490-char remark

    Show marketing remark (490 chars)

    Wow! Excellent Deal! Won't last... Investors- This is a Money Maker! Great Investment Property. Very nice four-plex newly remodeled with carpet, paint & appliances. North/South Exposure. Close to lake & Golf Course. Two bedroom 2 bath units. Berber carpet for durability. Washer/Dryer hookups insde laundry. Designated Parking areas. A Must See. Easy to show. NO SPDS or CLUE report will be given. Lender Owned. As is Property. Best Investment property in town. Shows Brand New.

21. 2008-12-08
    listed $99,900 490-char remark

    Show marketing remark (490 chars)

    Wow! Excellent Deal! Won't last... Investors- This is a Money Maker! Great Investment Property. Very nice four-plex newly remodeled with carpet, paint & appliances. North/South Exposure. Close to lake & Golf Course. Two bedroom 2 bath units. Berber carpet for durability. Washer/Dryer hookups insde laundry. Designated Parking areas. A Must See. Easy to show. NO SPDS or CLUE report will be given. Lender Owned. As is Property. Best Investment property in town. Shows Brand New.

22. 2008-06-06
    historical
23. 2008-01-06
    listed $250,000
24. 2006-10-31
    historical
25. 2006-07-17
    listed $275,000
26. 2005-07-21
    soldstatus $255,000
27. 2005-01-27
    listed $255,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,780 · $148/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,290 · $358/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,510/yr (+$209/mo · 141.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $56,928
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,410
• − Property taxes: −$1,780
• − Insurance: −$4,752
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,554
• − Management: −$4,554
• − Depreciation: −$18,909
• Taxable loss: −$14,032
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,368
• After-tax cash flow: $905/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Casa Grande Union High School District (4453)
• NCES district ID: 0401740
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $45,373
• Composite: 15.38/100
• National rank: #9319
• State rank: #193 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Arizona City

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #246
• US rank: #22768

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Arizona City, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 10,003
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 10,003
• Household income: $69,137
• Rent vs Own: 21.7% rent · 78.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 11% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.30%
• Current HPI: 283.5405
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+164.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $675,000 ARMLS
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $689,000 ARMLS
• 2025-05-14 Listed $699,000 ARMLS
• 2009-06-01 Sold (MLS) $95,000 ARMLS
• 2009-04-20 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2008-12-08 Listed $99,900 ARMLS
• 2008-06-06 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2008-01-06 Listed $250,000 ARMLS
• 2006-10-31 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2006-07-17 Listed $275,000 ARMLS
• 2005-07-21 Sold (MLS) $255,000 ARMLS
• 2005-01-27 Listed $255,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,780 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.