1902 Rockcreek Ln

Flint, MI 48507

$116,000D-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,207 sqft · Built 1961 · SingleFamily · Pending · 156 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,023/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$608
• Tax + insurance: −$207
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$215
• Net cashflow: $-7/mo
• Annual: $-83/yr
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.25%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $32,480

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $116k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-7 ($-83/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $115k (1.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $102k (11.8% below list).
• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $102k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $802 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#196 in MI, #4,946 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Flint School District (urban): math 7% / reading 13% proficiency, ranked #714 of 760 in MI (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 206 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 12 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $97k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 11.5% in Flint — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?