1902 Rockcreek Ln · Flint, MI 48507

$116,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,207 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 156 Days on market

Built 1961 6,534 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Sealed basement and done a few renovations to the property

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1961

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $116k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-7 ($-83/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $115k (1.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $102k (11.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $102k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 11.5% in Flint — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#196 in MI, #4,946 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Flint School District (urban): math 7% / reading 13% proficiency, ranked #714 of 760 in MI (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 206 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $802 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $97k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $102,080 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.25%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $70,006
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4202 Park Forest Dr	0.14mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,280 (+6%)	2mo	$73,900	$58	77
1809 Crestbrook Ln	0.41mi	3/1.5	1,240 (+3%)	5mo	$100,000	$81	72
4518 Huckleberry Ln	0.41mi	3/1.5	1,319 (+9%)	6mo	$69,090	$52	61
1523 Waldman St	0.55mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,179 (-2%)	6mo	$125,000	$106	59
1454 Stephens Ave	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+7%)	8mo	$163,900	$126	57
4302 Huckleberry Ln	0.37mi	3/1.0	1,366 (+13%)	2mo	$32,500	$24	57
1212 Crawford St	0.70mi	3/1.5	1,281 (+6%)	5mo	$50,000	$39	53
1405 Vermilya Ave	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (-5%)	0mo	$55,000	$48	52
1418 Blueberry Ln	0.56mi	3/1.0	1,045 (-13%)	4mo	$78,000	$75	46
1406 Lincoln Ave	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,106 (-8%)	9mo	$59,000	$53	44
1427 Blackberry Ln	0.56mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,310 (+8%)	10mo	$62,900	$48	44
1228 Leland St	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,047 (-13%)	5mo	$67,500	$64	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-22,210
• Equity at exit: $17,296

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-31,394
• Equity at exit: $10,030

Cash invested: $32,480 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48507

• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 206
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,023 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$608
• Tax from tax record: −$158 /mo · $1,901/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$215
• Net cashflow: $-7

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,032

Max offer price $114,784

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,000
• Closing costs: $3,480
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1426 Pettibone Ave Flint, MI	2.0	1.0	750	$900	$1.20	21d	1	0.62mi
912 Waldman Ave Flint, MI	3.0	2.0	1223	$675	$0.55	13d	1	1.00mi
813 Alvord Ave Flint, MI	2.0	1.0	724	$850	$1.17	13d	1	1.08mi
4400 Kings Ln Burton, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	666	$960	$1.44	13d	19	1.13mi
1410 Bradley Ave Flint, MI	3.0	1.5	1160	$995	$0.86	21d	1	1.22mi
2610 Swayze St Flint, MI	3.0	1.5	1194	$950	$0.80	21d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-03-26
   status Pending 58-char remark

   Show marketing remark (58 chars)

   Sealed basement and done a few renovations to the property

2. 2026-03-26
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (58 chars)

   Sealed basement and done a few renovations to the property

3. 2026-03-13
   price $116,000 58-char remark

   Show marketing remark (58 chars)

   Sealed basement and done a few renovations to the property

4. 2026-03-12
   price $116,000
5. 2026-03-10
   price $112,000 58-char remark

   Show marketing remark (58 chars)

   Sealed basement and done a few renovations to the property

6. 2026-03-10
   status Active 58-char remark

   Show marketing remark (58 chars)

   Sealed basement and done a few renovations to the property

7. 2026-03-10
   status Active

   Show marketing remark (58 chars)

   Sealed basement and done a few renovations to the property

8. 2026-03-10
   price $112,000

   Show marketing remark (58 chars)

   Sealed basement and done a few renovations to the property

9. 2026-02-17
   status Pending 58-char remark

   Show marketing remark (58 chars)

   Sealed basement and done a few renovations to the property

10. 2026-02-17
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (58 chars)

    Sealed basement and done a few renovations to the property

11. 2026-02-13
    price $92,000 58-char remark

    Show marketing remark (58 chars)

    Sealed basement and done a few renovations to the property

12. 2026-02-13
    price $92,000

    Show marketing remark (58 chars)

    Sealed basement and done a few renovations to the property

13. 2025-11-14
    price $108,500 58-char remark

    Show marketing remark (58 chars)

    Sealed basement and done a few renovations to the property

14. 2025-11-13
    price $108,500
15. 2025-09-30
    listed $115,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (58 chars)

    Sealed basement and done a few renovations to the property

16. 2025-09-30
    listed $115,000 Active 58-char remark

    Show marketing remark (58 chars)

    Sealed basement and done a few renovations to the property

17. 2010-12-03
    historical
18. 2010-12-03
    historical
19. 2000-06-28
    soldstatus $97,000
20. 2000-06-28
    soldstatus $97,000
21. 2000-04-20
    historical
22. 2000-04-14
    listed $99,900
23. 2000-04-14
    historical
24. 2000-04-14
    listed $99,900
25. 2000-04-12
    listed $99,900
26. 2000-04-12
    listed $99,900
27. 1999-05-20
    historical
28. 1999-01-21
    listed $105,000
29. 1999-01-21
    listed $105,000
30. 1999-01-01
    historical
31. 1999-01-01
    historical
32. 1998-10-01
    listed $107,000
33. 1998-10-01
    listed $107,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,901 · $158/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,901 · $158/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,276
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,498
• − Property taxes: −$1,901
• − Insurance: −$580
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$982
• − Management: −$982
• − Depreciation: −$3,375
• Taxable loss: −$2,041
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$490
• After-tax cash flow: $407/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flint School District
• NCES district ID: 2614520
• Math proficiency: 7% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 13% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $25,954
• Composite: 10.97/100
• National rank: #14642
• State rank: #714 of 760 in MI

Livability — Flint

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #196
• US rank: #4946

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flint, MI
• County: Genesee County · 221,329 people
• City population: 93,814
• Metro: Flint, MI
• Population (ZIP): 28,723
• Household income: $46,554
• Rent vs Own: 42.2% rent · 57.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1534.0

Population outlook (Genesee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,312 people
• By 2030: 362,731 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 321,550 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 279,212 · -26.8%
• By 2075: 193,336 · -49.3%
• By 2100: 128,118 · -66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 28% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Genesee

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.4% · R 47.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.3pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.2 2020: D+9.3 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+28.2 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.90%
• Current HPI: 132.3632
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.04%
• Metro: Flint, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+8.4% since first listed

33 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-26 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $116,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $116,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $112,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-10 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-10 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $112,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-02-17 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-17 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $92,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $92,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-11-14 Price Changed $108,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $108,500 REALCOMP
• 2025-09-30 Listed $115,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-09-30 Listed $115,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-12-03 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2010-12-03 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2000-06-28 Sold (MLS) $97,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2000-06-28 Sold (MLS) $97,000 REALCOMP
• 2000-04-20 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2000-04-14 Listed $99,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2000-04-14 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2000-04-14 Listed $99,900 REALCOMP
• 2000-04-12 Listed $99,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2000-04-12 Listed $99,900 REALCOMP
• 1999-05-20 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1999-01-21 Listed $105,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1999-01-21 Listed $105,000 REALCOMP
• 1999-01-01 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 1999-01-01 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1998-10-01 Listed $107,000 REALCOMP
• 1998-10-01 Listed $107,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,901 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.