12020 Winfree St

Chester, VA 23831

$640,000C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,716 sqft · Built 1915 · MultiFamily · Active · 109 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,364/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,356
• Tax + insurance: −$518
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,336
• Net cashflow: $1,153/mo
• Annual: $13,841/yr
• Cap rate: 8.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.72%
• DSCR: 1.34
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $179,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath multifamily listed at $640k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $636k (0.6% below list).
• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($582k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $582k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#170 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, schools A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 215 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $236k; list at $640k implies a 171% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.6% in Chester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $6,364/mo this rent would consume 80% of the median local household income ($96k/yr) (locally 952% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.