12020 Winfree St · Chester, VA 23831

$640,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,716 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 109 Days on market

Built 1915 0.75 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Multi-Family Property with SUBDIVIDABLE lot to build a single family home by-right, or another multi-family property (with approvals). This location is convenient to Rt 10 W. Hundred Rd, at Thomas Dale High School, across from Chester Village, YMCA, national retail stores and apr 2.5mi to I-95, I-64 and Rt 288 access. The roof is 3 was replaced 3 years ago and windows were replaced 1 year ago. All kitchens and bathrooms are modern. Apartments are open, with natural light, hardwood floors and tall ceilings. There are 4 units: (3) 2-bedroom units and (1) 1-bedroom units with separate electric meters and furnaces. Landlord pays utilities, except internet. $35,885 NOI

Key facts

• Modern kitchens
• Tall ceilings
• Modern baths

Tags

• SUBDIVIDABLE LOT
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• TALL CEILINGS
• MODERN KITCHENS
• MODERN BATHS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath multifamily listed at $640k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $636k (0.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $582k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.6% in Chester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#170 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, schools A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 215 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,364/mo this rent would consume 80% of the median local household income ($96k/yr) (locally 952% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($582k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $236k; list at $640k implies a 171% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $582,400 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.72%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-36,515
• Equity at exit: $95,426

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $37,555
• Equity at exit: $55,336

Cash invested: $179,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23831

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 215
• Price-to-rent: 32.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,364 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,356
• Tax from tax record: −$251 /mo · $3,015/yr
• Insurance: −$267
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,336
• Net cashflow: $1,153

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,904

Max offer price $640,000

Occupancy floor 77%

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 3× units	2	1	$4,866
1× unit	1	1	$1,498
Total (4 units)			$6,364

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $160,000
• Closing costs: $19,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3113 Perdue Springs Dr Chester, VA	3.0	3.0	1750	$2,500	$1.43	14d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $640,000 Active 109 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $640,000 Active 108 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $640,000 Active 107 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $640,000 Active 106 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $640,000 Active 104 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $640,000 Active 103 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $640,000 Active 100 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   remarks 694-char remark
9. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $640,000 Active 99 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $650,000 Active 98 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $650,000 Active 95 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $650,000 Active 94 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $650,000 Active 93 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $650,000 Active 92 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $650,000 Active 91 DOM
16. 2026-02-28
    listed $650,000 Active 672-char remark

    Show marketing remark (672 chars)

    Multi-Family Property with SUBDIVIDABLE lot to build a single family home by-right, or another multi-family property (with approvals). This location is convenient to Rt 10 W. Hundred Rd, at Thomas Dale High School, across from Chester Village, YMCA, national retail stores and apr 2.5mi to I-95, I-64 and Rt 288 access. The roof is 3 was replaced 3 years ago and windows were replaced 1 year ago. All kitchens and bathrooms are modern. Apartments are open, with natural light, hardwood floors and tall ceilings. There are 4 units: (3) 2-bedroom units and (1) 1-bedroom units with separate electric meters and furnaces. Landlord pays utilities, except internet. $35,885 NOI

17. 2018-04-02
    soldstatus $236,000
18. 2018-01-03
    historical
19. 2017-08-03
    listed $240,000 Active
20. 1986-12-29
    soldstatus $78,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,015 · $251/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,248 · $437/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,233/yr (+$186/mo · 74.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $76,368
• − Mortgage interest: −$35,850
• − Property taxes: −$3,015
• − Insurance: −$3,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,109
• − Management: −$6,109
• − Depreciation: −$18,618
• Taxable income: $3,466
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$832
• After-tax cash flow: $13,009/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chesterfield County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100840
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $72,821
• Composite: 51.56/100
• National rank: #1712
• State rank: #57 of 131 in VA

Livability — Chester

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #170
• US rank: #5369

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chester, VA
• County: Chesterfield County · 406,988 people
• City population: 54,827
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 39,529
• Household income: $95,750
• Rent vs Own: 27.9% rent · 72.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 952.0

Population outlook (Chesterfield County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 377,190 people
• By 2030: 395,710 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 427,694 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 452,706 · +20.0%
• By 2075: 505,533 · +34.0%
• By 2100: 521,282 · +38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chesterfield

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.0) · D 53.8% · R 44.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.4pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: R+2.2 2012: R+7.1 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -212.93%
• Current HPI: 252.2448
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+733.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-28 Listed $650,000 CVRMLS
• 2018-04-02 Sold (Public Records) $236,000 Public Records
• 2018-01-03 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2017-08-03 Listed $240,000 CVRMLS
• 1986-12-29 Sold (Public Records) $78,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,015 · -14.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.