11105 Wood Run Cir

Whitmore Lake, MI 48178

$115,000B

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,280 sqft · Built 2004 · Other · Pending · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,031/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$192
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $810/mo
• Annual: $9,715/yr
• Cap rate: 14.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.17%
• DSCR: 2.34
• 1% rule: 1.77%
• Cash to close: $32,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $115k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $810 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $113k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#279 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• South Lyon Community Schools (suburban): math 46% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #74 of 540 in MI (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 350 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 488 units permitted in Livingston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Livingston County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 9 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 14.7% vs local median 2.5% in Whitmore Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.