3535 Stine Rd #124

Bakersfield, CA 93309

$103,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1975 · Manufactured · Active · 140 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,435/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$540
• Tax + insurance: −$172
• HOA: −$775
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $-353/mo
• Annual: $-4,233/yr
• Cap rate: 2.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.68%
• DSCR: 0.35
• 1% rule: 1.39%
• Cash to close: $28,840

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $103k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-353 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $52k (49.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $103k).
• It's been on market 140 days — a 12% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $52k (49.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $712 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#716 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, crime F, amenities F.
• Panama-Buena Vista Union (urban): math 37% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #542 of 1,400 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Louise Sandrini Elementary (597 students, 92% FRL); O. J. Actis Junior High (680 students, 83% FRL); West High (reading 90%, 2,025 students, 91% FRL) — zoned schools average 89% FRL vs 51% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 54% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 207 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $103k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.2% vs local median 3.6% in Bakersfield — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 140 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 50% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?