1186 Poquoson Ave

Poquoson, VA 23662

$249,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,302 sqft · Built 1949 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,512/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax + insurance: −$846
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$528
• Net cashflow: $-168/mo
• Annual: $-2,012/yr
• Cap rate: 7.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.46%
• DSCR: 1.20
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $69,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $249k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-168 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (11.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $249k).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $219k (11.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#276 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Poquoson City Public School District (suburban): math 78% / reading 91% proficiency, ranked #2 of 131 in VA (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Poquoson Elementary (math 81% / reading 92%, grade A+, #47 of 1,108 statewide, top 5%, 444 students, 21% FRL); Poquoson High (math 67% / reading 92%, grade A-, #63 of 319 statewide, top 22%, 690 students, 19% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 160 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 133 units permitted in Poquoson city in 2024 (36 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Poquoson County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 2.7% in Poquoson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.