1186 Poquoson Ave · Poquoson, VA 23662

$249,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,302 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1949 0.56 ac lot Est $421k · 41% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +7.5/10.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits in the heart of Poquoson! This brick home is situated on a generous lot (over half of an acre) and offers stunning marsh views that create a peaceful, coastal backdrop. This property is being sold strictly AS-IS, making it an ideal investment for buyers looking to renovate, rebuild or create a custom retreat. With it's solid brick exterior and spacious footprint, the home provides a strong starting point to invest in a sought-after location with so much potential!

Key facts

• Marsh views
• Generous lot
• Spacious footprint

Tags

• MARSH VIEWS
• GENEROUS LOT
• SOLID BRICK EXTERIOR
• SPACIOUS FOOTPRINT
• COASTAL BACKDROP

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No HOA fees indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway parking
• Utilities: City/County water; City/County sewer; Electric water heater
• Home design: Detached traditional home; Two stories; Crawl foundation
• Construction: Asphalt shingle roof
• Exterior features: Brick and vinyl siding; Partial fence; Screened porch; Storage shed; Marsh view

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom with ensuite; One bedroom includes an ensuite
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Wood
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Fireplace (wood-burning); Ceiling fan(s); Cable hookup; Pull-down attic stairs
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Main floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-168 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (11.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $249k).
• Recommended offer: $219k (11.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 2.7% in Poquoson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#276 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Poquoson City Public School District (suburban): math 78% / reading 91% proficiency, ranked #2 of 131 in VA (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Poquoson Elementary (math 81% / reading 92%, grade A+, #47 of 1,108 statewide, top 5%, 444 students, 21% FRL); Poquoson High (math 67% / reading 92%, grade A-, #63 of 319 statewide, top 22%, 690 students, 19% FRL).
• Market conditions: 160 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 133 units permitted in Poquoson city in 2024 (36 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Poquoson County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,384 (11.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.46%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $421,266
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
107 Oystermans Way	0.28mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,114 (-8%)	0mo	$510,967	$242	66
50 Bunting Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0	2,147 (-7%)	1mo	$365,000	$170	60
56 N Lawson Rd	0.33mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,500 (+9%)	3mo	$748,000	$299	58
7 Freeman Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	2,048 (-11%)	2mo	$374,000	$183	56
78 Ridge Rd	0.50mi	3/3.5	2,067 (-10%)	3mo	$315,000	$152	51
145 Church St	0.71mi	3/2.5	2,050 (-11%)	15mo	$599,000	$292	34
155 Church St	0.72mi	3/2.0	2,041 (-11%)	21mo	$302,000	$148	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-50,723
• Equity at exit: $37,127

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-56,687
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23662

• Active inventory: 160
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,512 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$316 /mo · $3,794/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$528
• Net cashflow: $-168

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,724

Max offer price $219,384

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-26
   listed $249,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,794 · $316/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,794 · $316/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,146
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$3,794
• − Insurance: −$6,364
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,412
• − Management: −$2,412
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$6,027
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,446
• After-tax cash flow: $-565/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Poquoson City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102980
• Math proficiency: 78% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 91% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $83,895
• Composite: 74.58/100
• National rank: #154
• State rank: #2 of 131 in VA

Livability — Poquoson

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #276
• US rank: #9903

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poquoson, VA
• County: Poquoson City · 12,639 people
• City population: 12,639
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• Population (ZIP): 12,639
• Household income: $120,972
• Rent vs Own: 15.4% rent · 84.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 89.0

Population outlook (Poquoson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,348 people
• By 2030: 12,611 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 12,894 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 12,779 · +3.5%
• By 2075: 13,020 · +5.4%
• By 2100: 11,925 · -3.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Poquoson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.4% · R 72.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.4pp toward D · 2008: -49.3pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+45.2 2016: R+49.1 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+49.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -275.55%
• Current HPI: 267.5479
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $249,000 REINMLS

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,794 · +15.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.