437 W 43rd St #1

New York, NY 10036

$615,000C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 632 sqft · Built 1920 · Condo · Active · 723 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $8,045/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,225
• Tax + insurance: −$1,361
• HOA: −$1,467
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,689
• Net cashflow: $302/mo
• Annual: $3,625/yr
• Cap rate: 7.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.57%
• DSCR: 1.11
• 1% rule: 1.31%
• Cash to close: $172,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $615k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $302 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $615k).
• It's been on market 723 days — a 12% lower offer ($541k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $541k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 181 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,467 units permitted in New York County in 2024 (4,463 in 5+ unit buildings).
• New York County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 78244% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $470k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $8,045/mo this rent would consume 101% of the median local household income ($96k/yr) (locally 3765% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 723 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?