416 E Curtis

Dilley, TX 78017

$115,000D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 836 sqft · Built 1994 · SingleFamily · Active · 33 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,043/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$294
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$219
• Net cashflow: $-73/mo
• Annual: $-872/yr
• Cap rate: 6.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.96%
• DSCR: 1.09
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $32,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-73 ($-872/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $102k (11.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $104k (9.3% below list).
• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $102k (11.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($795 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#997 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Dilley ISD (town): math 13% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #787 of 826 in TX (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Dilley El (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 451 students, 85% FRL); Dilley H S (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 280 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 32% district-wide (49 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 12 units permitted in Frio County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Frio County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (2.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.