416 E Curtis · Dilley, TX 78017

$115,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 836 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1994 0.26 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• Listed 33 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Located in the Darlington subdivision

Exterior

• Utilities: City water/sewer
• Home design: Pre-owned home; Located in the Darlington subdivision
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Wood exterior

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen approximately 8 x 12
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on lower level (approximately 8 x 10); Bedroom 2 approximately 8 x 10; Bedroom 3 approximately 8 x 10
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heat
• Interior features: Washer and dryer connections; One living area
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer connections

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-73 ($-872/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $102k (11.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $104k (9.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $102k (11.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#997 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Dilley ISD (town): math 13% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #787 of 826 in TX (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Dilley El (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 451 students, 85% FRL); Dilley H S (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 280 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 32% district-wide (49 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 12 units permitted in Frio County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($795 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.9% local appreciation)).
• Frio County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $102,168 (11.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.96%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.93% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $8,860
• Equity at exit: $51,235

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $38,706
• Equity at exit: $78,593

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78017

• Home prices YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,043 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$121 /mo · $1,449/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$219
• Net cashflow: $-73

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,135

Max offer price $102,168

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-8	-5% $-40	+0% $-73	+5% $-105	+10% $-138
Rent	-10% $-155	-5% $-114	+0% $-73	+5% $-31	+10% $10
Rate	-1.0pp $-15	-0.5pp $-43	base $-73	+0.5pp $-102	+1.0pp $-133

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $115,000 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $115,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $115,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 14 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 13 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    listed $115,000 New
17. 2025-11-14
    soldstatus
18. 2025-02-18
    soldstatus
19. 2022-03-03
    soldstatus
20. 2019-08-21
    status Pending
21. 2019-08-07
    historical
22. 2019-07-27
    listed $59,998 New
23. 2019-03-31
    historical
24. 2018-11-26
    listed $59,998 New
25. 2018-09-13
    historical
26. 2018-04-19
    price $75,000
27. 2018-03-14
    listed $80,000 New
28. 2015-08-05
    soldstatus
29. 2015-07-20
    soldstatus
30. 2015-06-29
    soldstatus Sold
31. 2015-06-13
    status Pending
32. 2015-05-19
    historical Active Option
33. 2014-12-04
    price $38,000
34. 2014-10-10
    listed $50,000 New
35. 1987-07-20
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,449 · $121/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,104 · $175/mo
• Expected delta: +$655/yr (+$55/mo · 45.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,521
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,449
• − Insurance: −$2,078
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,002
• − Management: −$1,002
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable loss: −$2,796
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$671
• After-tax cash flow: $-201/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dilley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817100
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $43,032
• Composite: 15.55/100
• National rank: #9296
• State rank: #787 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dilley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #997
• US rank: #17714

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dilley, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,160

Population outlook (Frio County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,420 people
• By 2030: 24,445 · +9.0%
• By 2040: 28,783 · +28.4%
• By 2050: 33,604 · +49.9%
• By 2075: 46,166 · +105.9%
• By 2100: 52,553 · +134.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 74% Two or more races 24% White 18% Black 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 46% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% English 1% Lithuanian 0%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 52% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Frio

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.6) · D 37.5% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -43.3pp toward R · 2008: 18.7pp · 2024: -24.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.6 2020: R+7.6 2016: D+6.3 2012: D+20.6 2008: D+18.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.93%
• Current HPI: 69.0791
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+130.0% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $115,000 LERA
• 2025-11-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-02-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-03-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-08-21 Pending — LERA
• 2019-08-07 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2019-07-27 Listed $59,998 LERA
• 2019-03-31 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2018-11-26 Listed $59,998 LERA
• 2018-09-13 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2018-04-19 Price Changed $75,000 LERA
• 2018-03-14 Listed $80,000 LERA
• 2015-08-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-07-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-06-29 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2015-06-13 Pending — LERA
• 2015-05-19 Contingent — LERA
• 2014-12-04 Price Changed $38,000 LERA
• 2014-10-10 Listed $50,000 LERA
• 1987-07-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+11.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,449 · +6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.