159 Byram Ln

Stockton, NJ 08559

$1,375,000C+

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,583 sqft · Built 1985 · SingleFamily · Active · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $15,675/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,211
• Tax + insurance: −$1,919
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,292
• Net cashflow: $3,254/mo
• Annual: $39,047/yr
• Cap rate: 9.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.47%
• DSCR: 1.51
• 1% rule: 1.14%
• Cash to close: $385,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.38M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($39k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($16k rent vs $1.38M).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $10k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $41k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#451 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Kingwood Township School District (rural): math 31% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #159 of 472 in NJ (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 389 units permitted in Hunterdon County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hunterdon County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 9 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $220k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $390k; list at $1.38M implies a 253% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 0.3% in Stockton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.