4954 Winding Timbers Cir

Atascocita, TX 77346

$277,600D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,319 sqft · Built 2000 · SingleFamily · Pending · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,579/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,456
• Tax + insurance: −$746
• HOA: −$35
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$542
• Net cashflow: $-200/mo
• Annual: $-2,399/yr
• Cap rate: 5.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.09%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $77,728

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $278k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-200 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (12.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (7.1% below list).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $242k (12.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Whispering Pines El (math 21% / reading 25%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 697 students, 77% FRL); Humble Middle (math 21% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,258 of 1,662 statewide, top 77%, 1,382 students, 81% FRL); Humble H S (math 15% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,348 of 1,632 statewide, top 83%, 2,867 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 32% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Humble ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 682 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.0% in Atascocita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.