4954 Winding Timbers Cir · Atascocita, TX 77346

$277,600

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,319 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 2000 6,960 sqft lot $120/sqft · at area comps Est $270k · at est. $35/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• ARV discount +6.3/15.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute as a button 4 bedroom 2 bath home! Bright, open and spacious foyer and living room! This home has only had one owner, meticulously cared for! New roof and A/C added in 2019! New water heater installed in 2020! This kitchen is everything you are looking for! Stainless appliances - built in microwave and dishwasher were recently replaced! Walk in pantry and granite countertops, plenty of cabinet space as well! Secondary bath was completely remodeled in 2019! Separate tub and shower in primary bath! Gazebo on back patio stays and has a fresh canopy installed! Upgraded electrical panel added in 2018! Home does have an irrigation system and nicely appointed landscaping in front and back yard! Thank you for considering!

Key facts

• Large family room
• Private rear yard
• Ceramic tile

Tags

• LANDSCAPED CORNER LOT
• PRIVATE REAR YARD
• CERAMIC TILE
• LARGE FAMILY ROOM
• FIREPLACE
• ABUNDANT CABINET SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Timber Forest HOA (annual fee $425)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Faces south
• Construction: Built in 2000; Brick, cement siding, and wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Fenced backyard; Sprinkler/irrigation system; Storage shed

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Kitchen island; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (17x13); Bedroom on first floor (14x10); Bedroom on first floor (10x10); Bedroom on first floor (10x10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Engineered hardwood; Laminate plank; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Jetted tub and separate shower; Double vanity
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Gas fireplace (1); Double vanity; Entrance foyer; Jetted tub; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Pantry; Separate shower; Vanity; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $278k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-200 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (12.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (7.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $242k (12.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.0% in Atascocita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Whispering Pines El (math 21% / reading 25%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 697 students, 77% FRL); Humble Middle (math 21% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,258 of 1,662 statewide, top 77%, 1,382 students, 81% FRL); Humble H S (math 15% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,348 of 1,632 statewide, top 83%, 2,867 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 32% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Humble ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 681 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $242,287 (12.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.09%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $270,113
• List price: $277,600
• Delta: 2.77%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4954 Winding Timbers Cir	0.00mi	4/2.0	2,319 (0%)	0mo	$277,600	$120	100
12223 English Brook Cir	0.31mi	4/2.5	2,397 (+3%)	1mo	$239,500	$100	77
17914 June Forest Dr	0.61mi	4/2.5	2,384 (+3%)	1mo	$289,500	$121	64
5018 Woodland Meadows Ln	0.49mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,223 (-4%)	1mo	$239,900	$108	62
5202 Flax Bourton St	0.59mi	4/2.5	2,205 (-5%)	1mo	$260,000	$118	62
4939 Falcon Forest Dr	0.25mi	4/2.5	2,639 (+14%)	3mo	$210,000	$80	61
4826 Drew Forest Ln	0.30mi	4/3.0	2,002 (-14%)	2mo	$268,700	$134	58
5019 Woodland Meadows Ln	0.52mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,506 (+8%)	2mo	$245,000	$98	54
18042 Noble Forest Dr	0.28mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,639 (+14%)	4mo	$264,000	$100	54
12223 Zenith Ridge Way	0.54mi	4/2.0	2,049 (-12%)	5mo	$255,000	$124	51
18610 Timbers Dr	0.73mi	4/2.0	2,149 (-7%)	4mo	$293,000	$136	50
5018 Steel Meadows Ln	0.42mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,975 (-15%)	1mo	$224,900	$114	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 0.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-40,161
• Equity at exit: $67,621

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-55,610
• Equity at exit: $71,528

Cash invested: $77,728 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77346

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 681
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,579 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,456
• Tax from tax record: −$631 /mo · $7,567/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$35
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$542
• Net cashflow: $-200

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,832

Max offer price $242,287

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-43	-5% $-121	+0% $-200	+5% $-278	+10% $-357
Rent	-10% $-404	-5% $-302	+0% $-200	+5% $-98	+10% $4
Rate	-1.0pp $-60	-0.5pp $-129	base $-200	+0.5pp $-272	+1.0pp $-345

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,400
• Closing costs: $8,328
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18222 Noble Forest Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	3265	$2,681	$0.82	0d	1	0.10mi
18123 Noble Forest Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2328	$2,595	$1.11	6d	1	0.24mi
12214 Landsdown Ridge Way Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2389	$2,165	$0.91	12d	1	0.24mi
18030 June Forest Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2341	$2,156	$0.92	0d	1	0.45mi
18018 Heron Forest Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1795	$1,939	$1.08	25d	1	0.53mi
5303 Hill Timbers Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1884	$2,050	$1.09	45d	1	0.66mi
18406 S Roaring River Ct Humble, TX	4.0	4.0	3319	$3,600	$1.08	45d	1	0.88mi
18103 Yellowstone Trl Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2602	$2,371	$0.91	45d	1	0.89mi
12323 Crescent Mountain Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	2358	$2,231	$0.95	0d	1	1.03mi
17923 Diamond Peak Ct Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	2171	$2,306	$1.06	0d	1	1.06mi
4110 Forest Rain Ln Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2845	$2,370	$0.83	25d	1	1.14mi
3818 Oaktrace Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1644	$2,200	$1.34	45d	1	1.17mi
12643 Jamestown Crossing Ln Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	2450	$4,995	$2.04	25d	1	1.18mi
19322 Forest Fern Ct Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2626	$3,500	$1.33	45d	1	1.28mi
18810 Woodbreeze Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2200	$2,279	$1.04	25d	1	1.39mi
18810 Summer Anne Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	3000	$2,376	$0.79	45d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $35 · $420/yr
• Likely covers: waterelectriclandscaping

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-17
   status Pending 802-char remark
2. 2026-05-04
   listed $277,600 Active 802-char remark
3. 2021-03-26
   soldstatus Sold 728-char remark

   Show marketing remark (728 chars)

   Cute as a button 4 bedroom 2 bath home! Bright, open and spacious foyer and living room! This home has only had one owner, meticulously cared for! New roof and A/C added in 2019! New water heater installed in 2020! This kitchen is everything you are looking for! Stainless appliances - built in microwave and dishwasher were recently replaced! Walk in pantry and granite countertops, plenty of cabinet space as well! Secondary bath was completely remodeled in 2019! Separate tub and shower in primary bath! Gazebo on back patio stays and has a fresh canopy installed! Upgraded electrical panel added in 2018! Home does have an irrigation system and nicely appointed landscaping in front and back yard! Thank you for considering!

4. 2021-03-25
   soldstatus
5. 2021-03-18
   status Pending 728-char remark

   Show marketing remark (728 chars)

   Cute as a button 4 bedroom 2 bath home! Bright, open and spacious foyer and living room! This home has only had one owner, meticulously cared for! New roof and A/C added in 2019! New water heater installed in 2020! This kitchen is everything you are looking for! Stainless appliances - built in microwave and dishwasher were recently replaced! Walk in pantry and granite countertops, plenty of cabinet space as well! Secondary bath was completely remodeled in 2019! Separate tub and shower in primary bath! Gazebo on back patio stays and has a fresh canopy installed! Upgraded electrical panel added in 2018! Home does have an irrigation system and nicely appointed landscaping in front and back yard! Thank you for considering!

6. 2021-03-07
   status Option Pending 728-char remark

   Show marketing remark (728 chars)

   Cute as a button 4 bedroom 2 bath home! Bright, open and spacious foyer and living room! This home has only had one owner, meticulously cared for! New roof and A/C added in 2019! New water heater installed in 2020! This kitchen is everything you are looking for! Stainless appliances - built in microwave and dishwasher were recently replaced! Walk in pantry and granite countertops, plenty of cabinet space as well! Secondary bath was completely remodeled in 2019! Separate tub and shower in primary bath! Gazebo on back patio stays and has a fresh canopy installed! Upgraded electrical panel added in 2018! Home does have an irrigation system and nicely appointed landscaping in front and back yard! Thank you for considering!

7. 2021-02-28
   listed $215,000 Active 728-char remark

   Show marketing remark (728 chars)

   Cute as a button 4 bedroom 2 bath home! Bright, open and spacious foyer and living room! This home has only had one owner, meticulously cared for! New roof and A/C added in 2019! New water heater installed in 2020! This kitchen is everything you are looking for! Stainless appliances - built in microwave and dishwasher were recently replaced! Walk in pantry and granite countertops, plenty of cabinet space as well! Secondary bath was completely remodeled in 2019! Separate tub and shower in primary bath! Gazebo on back patio stays and has a fresh canopy installed! Upgraded electrical panel added in 2018! Home does have an irrigation system and nicely appointed landscaping in front and back yard! Thank you for considering!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,567 · $631/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,567 · $631/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,943
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,550
• − Property taxes: −$7,567
• − Insurance: −$1,388
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,475
• − Management: −$2,475
• − HOA: −$420
• − Depreciation: −$8,076
• Taxable loss: −$7,008
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,682
• After-tax cash flow: $-717/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Atascocita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atascocita, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 79,538
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 79,538
• Household income: $122,241
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1072.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Current HPI: 218.0478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+29.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2026-06-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-05-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $277,600 HARMLS
• 2021-03-26 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-03-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-03-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-03-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-02-28 Listed $215,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,567 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.