516 31 1/2 Rd #19

Clifton, CO 81504

$94,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 1982 · Manufactured · Pending · 60 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,675/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$493
• Tax + insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$510
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $256/mo
• Annual: $3,074/yr
• Cap rate: 9.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.68%
• DSCR: 1.52
• 1% rule: 1.78%
• Cash to close: $26,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $94k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $256 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $94k).
• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $91k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $650 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#140 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, commute A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, employment F.
• Mesa County Valley School District No. 51 (suburban): math 26% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #43 of 86 in CO (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fruitvale Elementary School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #568 of 966 statewide, top 60%, 412 students, 59% FRL); Grand Mesa Middle School (math 13% / reading 29%, grade F, #198 of 270 statewide, top 74%, 511 students, 59% FRL); Central High School (math 19% / reading 43%, grade F, #229 of 381 statewide, top 60%, 1,613 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 39% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 30% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 280 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,014 units permitted in Mesa County in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.2% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 3.3% in Clifton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.