516 31 1/2 Rd #19 · Clifton, CO 81504

$94,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 60 Days on market

Built 1982 Est $94k · at est. $510/mo HOA · 30% of rent ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offering comfort and functionality! This well-maintained trailer features a bright, open layout, a split-bedroom floor plan, and a large primary suite with a full bath. Outside, you'll find a handy storage shed and plenty of space to make it your own. Affordable living with room to grow!

Key facts

• Covered decks
• Fenced yard
• Large living room

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• DINING AND KITCHEN AREAS
• COVERED DECKS
• FENCED YARD
• INVITING OUTDOOR SPACES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Land is leased
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a $510 monthly fee; HOA fee includes water, sewer, and trash

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residential property
• Construction: Masonite siding; Block foundation; Block basement; Asphalt/composition roof; Home built on a block foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Deck; Chain link fencing; Shed(s); Landscaped lot; Paved public-maintained city street frontage; South-facing

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom features include walk-in closet(s)
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Accessible full bath
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; Window coverings; Accessible entrance, accessible full bath, and accessible hallways
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Laundry located in kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $94k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $256 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $94k).
• Recommended offer: $91k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 3.3% in Clifton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#140 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, commute A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, employment F.
• Mesa County Valley School District No. 51 (suburban): math 26% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #43 of 86 in CO (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fruitvale Elementary School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #568 of 966 statewide, top 60%, 412 students, 59% FRL); Grand Mesa Middle School (math 13% / reading 29%, grade F, #198 of 270 statewide, top 74%, 511 students, 59% FRL); Central High School (math 19% / reading 43%, grade F, #229 of 381 statewide, top 60%, 1,613 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 39% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 280 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,014 units permitted in Mesa County in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $650 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.2% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 30% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $91,180 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.78% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.68%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $94,080
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
516 31 1/2 Rd #19	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (0%)	10mo	$80,000	$60	87
3141 Brownie Cir #17	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-10%)	4mo	$85,000	$70	71
518 Edris Ct #71	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,216 (-10%)	10mo	$94,000	$77	66
3130 Brownie Cir #36	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-10%)	6mo	$71,000	$58	65
579 W Conestoga Cir	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+8%)	6mo	$285,000	$196	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.2% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $1,702
• Equity at exit: $14,016

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $25,026
• Equity at exit: $8,127

Cash invested: $26,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 81504

• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 280
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,675 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$493
• Tax from tax record: −$25 /mo · $302/yr
• Insurance: −$39
• HOA: −$510
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $256

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,351

Max offer price $94,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,500
• Closing costs: $2,820
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3197 Hill Ave Unit 3 Grand Junction, CO	2.0	1.0	1022	$1,095	$1.07	21d	1	0.56mi
497 Coronado Ct Unit B Clifton, CO	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,395	$1.28	21d	1	0.57mi
492 Coronado Ct Unit A Clifton, CO	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,600	$1.47	13d	1	0.60mi
491 32 1/8 Rd Unit 2 Clifton, CO	2.0	1.0	890	$1,200	$1.35	21d	1	0.65mi
461 Topaz Dr Unit C Clifton, CO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,195	$1.33	21d	1	0.78mi
3216 Chipeta Ct Unit 4 Clifton, CO	2.0	1.0	1024	$1,250	$1.22	21d	1	0.78mi
3210 Diamond Ct Unit B Clifton, CO	2.0	1.0	1000	$995	$0.99	21d	1	0.80mi
3221 Chipeta Ct Apt 3 Clifton, CO	2.0	1.0	984	$1,000	$1.02	21d	1	0.83mi
428 1/2 Keener St Grand Junction, CO	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,900	$1.65	21d	1	0.94mi
3133 Meadow Ln Grand Junction, CO	3.0	2.0	1255	$2,000	$1.59	21d	1	0.94mi
461 N Sun Ct Grand Junction, CO	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,780	$1.48	21d	1	1.03mi
3132 Shamrock Dr Grand Junction, CO	4.0	2.5	1851	$2,200	$1.19	21d	1	1.10mi
627 Highline Dr Clifton, CO	2.0	1.5	1302	$1,350	$1.04	13d	1	1.16mi
3252 Villasur Dr Apt B Clifton, CO	3.0	1.0	1096	$1,500	$1.37	21d	1	1.25mi
3238 D 1/4 Rd Clifton, CO	2.0	1.0	952	$2,000	$2.10	13d	1	1.26mi
451 Davis Rd Grand Junction, CO	2.0	1.0	1102	$1,400	$1.27	21d	1	1.35mi
612 Round Table Rd Grand Junction, CO	3.0	2.0	1238	$1,750	$1.41	13d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $510 · $6,120/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-06
   price $94,000
3. 2026-04-28
   status Active
4. 2026-04-11
   status Pending
5. 2026-03-12
   status Active
6. 2026-03-02
   status Pending
7. 2026-02-20
   listed $95,000 Active
8. 2025-08-25
   soldstatus $80,000 Closed 320-char remark

   Show marketing remark (320 chars)

   Spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offering comfort and functionality! This well-maintained trailer features a bright, open layout, a split-bedroom floor plan, and a large primary suite with a full bath. Outside, you'll find a handy storage shed and plenty of space to make it your own. Affordable living with room to grow!

9. 2025-08-07
   status Pending 320-char remark

   Show marketing remark (320 chars)

   Spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offering comfort and functionality! This well-maintained trailer features a bright, open layout, a split-bedroom floor plan, and a large primary suite with a full bath. Outside, you'll find a handy storage shed and plenty of space to make it your own. Affordable living with room to grow!

10. 2025-07-22
    price $94,900 320-char remark

    Show marketing remark (320 chars)

    Spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offering comfort and functionality! This well-maintained trailer features a bright, open layout, a split-bedroom floor plan, and a large primary suite with a full bath. Outside, you'll find a handy storage shed and plenty of space to make it your own. Affordable living with room to grow!

11. 2025-06-29
    price $97,500 320-char remark

    Show marketing remark (320 chars)

    Spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offering comfort and functionality! This well-maintained trailer features a bright, open layout, a split-bedroom floor plan, and a large primary suite with a full bath. Outside, you'll find a handy storage shed and plenty of space to make it your own. Affordable living with room to grow!

12. 2025-06-16
    price $99,700 320-char remark

    Show marketing remark (320 chars)

    Spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offering comfort and functionality! This well-maintained trailer features a bright, open layout, a split-bedroom floor plan, and a large primary suite with a full bath. Outside, you'll find a handy storage shed and plenty of space to make it your own. Affordable living with room to grow!

13. 2025-06-09
    price $104,900 320-char remark

    Show marketing remark (320 chars)

    Spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offering comfort and functionality! This well-maintained trailer features a bright, open layout, a split-bedroom floor plan, and a large primary suite with a full bath. Outside, you'll find a handy storage shed and plenty of space to make it your own. Affordable living with room to grow!

14. 2025-06-05
    listed $110,000 Active 320-char remark

    Show marketing remark (320 chars)

    Spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offering comfort and functionality! This well-maintained trailer features a bright, open layout, a split-bedroom floor plan, and a large primary suite with a full bath. Outside, you'll find a handy storage shed and plenty of space to make it your own. Affordable living with room to grow!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $302 · $25/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $517 · $43/mo
• Expected delta: +$215/yr (+$18/mo · 71.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,102
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,265
• − Property taxes: −$302
• − Insurance: −$470
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,608
• − Management: −$1,608
• − HOA: −$6,120
• − Depreciation: −$2,735
• Taxable income: $1,994
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$479
• After-tax cash flow: $2,595/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mesa County Valley School District No. 51
• NCES district ID: 0804350
• Math proficiency: 26% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $50,189
• Composite: 27.83/100
• National rank: #6884
• State rank: #43 of 86 in CO

Livability — Clifton

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #140
• US rank: #11665

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living A Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Clifton, CO
• County: Mesa County · 143,088 people
• City population: 12,892
• Metro: Grand Junction, CO
• Population (ZIP): 32,376
• Household income: $70,958
• Rent vs Own: 21.2% rent · 78.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 808.0

Population outlook (Mesa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 153,000 people
• By 2030: 154,479 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 155,257 · +1.5%
• By 2050: 153,384 · +0.3%
• By 2075: 144,735 · -5.4%
• By 2100: 123,825 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 18%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Mesa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.3) · D 36.6% · R 61.0% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.2pp toward D · 2008: -29.5pp · 2024: -24.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.3 2020: R+28.0 2016: R+36.3 2012: R+32.8 2008: R+29.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -345.40%
• Current HPI: 309.0092
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.20%
• Metro: Grand Junction, CO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

-14.5% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — GJARA
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $94,000 GJARA
• 2026-04-28 Relisted — GJARA
• 2026-04-11 Pending — GJARA
• 2026-03-12 Relisted — GJARA
• 2026-03-02 Pending — GJARA
• 2026-02-20 Listed $95,000 GJARA
• 2025-08-25 Sold (MLS) $80,000 GJARA
• 2025-08-07 Pending — GJARA
• 2025-07-22 Price Changed $94,900 GJARA
• 2025-06-29 Price Changed $97,500 GJARA
• 2025-06-16 Price Changed $99,700 GJARA
• 2025-06-09 Price Changed $104,900 GJARA
• 2025-06-05 Listed $110,000 GJARA

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $302 · +303.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.