1526 E Miller Rd

Midland, MI 48640

$178,900D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 920 sqft · Built 1997 · SingleFamily · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,469/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$938
• Tax + insurance: −$249
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $-27/mo
• Annual: $-323/yr
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.65%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $50,092

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $179k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-27 ($-323/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $174k (2.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (17.9% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $147k (17.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#28 in MI, #578 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Bullock Creek School District (rural): math 37% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #132 of 540 in MI (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Floyd School (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #382 of 1,397 statewide, top 30%, 307 students, 66% FRL); Bullock Creek Middle School (math 31% / reading 54%, grade D-, #183 of 493 statewide, top 37%, 371 students, 46% FRL); Bullock Creek High School (math 37% / reading 52%, grade F, #214 of 713 statewide, top 36%, 490 students, 33% FRL).
• Market conditions: 113 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 320 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (204 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Midland County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $64k; list at $179k implies a 180% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.4% in Midland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.