1526 E Miller Rd · Midland, MI 48640

$178,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 920 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1997 0.76 ac lot Est $188k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

COUNTRY LIVING CLOSE TO SCHOOLS, RAIL TRAIL AND CHIPPEWA NATURE CENTER! New roof & front deck on home 2017. Blacktop driveway was recently reserviced. Detached garage 30x40 with a high overhead door. City water. Bullock Creek Schools.

Key facts

• Blacktop driveway
• Front deck
• City water

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• FRONT DECK
• BLACKTOP DRIVEWAY
• DETACHED GARAGE
• CITY WATER
• BULLOCK CREEK SCHOOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-27 ($-323/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $174k (2.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (17.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $147k (17.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.4% in Midland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#28 in MI, #578 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Bullock Creek School District (rural): math 37% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #132 of 540 in MI (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Floyd School (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #382 of 1,397 statewide, top 30%, 307 students, 66% FRL); Bullock Creek Middle School (math 31% / reading 54%, grade D-, #183 of 493 statewide, top 37%, 371 students, 46% FRL); Bullock Creek High School (math 37% / reading 52%, grade F, #214 of 713 statewide, top 36%, 490 students, 33% FRL).
• Market conditions: 113 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 320 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (204 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Midland County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $64k; list at $179k implies a 180% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $146,918 (17.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.65%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $187,680
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1526 E Miller Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	960 (+4%)	0mo	$195,700	$204	88

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-30,712
• Equity at exit: $26,675

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-28,984
• Equity at exit: $15,468

Cash invested: $50,092 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48640

• Home prices YoY: -21.7%
• Active inventory: 113
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,469 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$938
• Tax from tax record: −$175 /mo · $2,098/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $-27

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,503

Max offer price $174,143

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $74	-5% $24	+0% $-27	+5% $-78	+10% $-128
Rent	-10% $-143	-5% $-85	+0% $-27	+5% $31	+10% $89
Rate	-1.0pp $63	-0.5pp $19	base $-27	+0.5pp $-73	+1.0pp $-120

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,725
• Closing costs: $5,367
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-03-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-20
   listed $178,900 Active
3. 2001-10-24
   soldstatus $64,000
4. 2000-08-07
   soldstatus $56,850

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,098 · $175/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,427 · $202/mo
• Expected delta: +$328/yr (+$27/mo · 15.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,630
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,021
• − Property taxes: −$2,098
• − Insurance: −$894
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,410
• − Management: −$1,410
• − Depreciation: −$5,204
• Taxable loss: −$3,409
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$818
• After-tax cash flow: $495/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bullock Creek School District
• NCES district ID: 2607320
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $52,984
• Composite: 39.68/100
• National rank: #3907
• State rank: #132 of 540 in MI

Livability — Midland

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #28
• US rank: #578

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Midland County · 66,531 people
• City population: 66,531
• Metro: Midland, MI
• Population (ZIP): 32,492
• Household income: $80,574
• Rent vs Own: 25.0% rent · 75.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 939.0

Population outlook (Midland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 83,968 people
• By 2030: 83,368 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 80,713 · -3.9%
• By 2050: 76,698 · -8.7%
• By 2075: 67,617 · -19.5%
• By 2100: 57,529 · -31.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Midland

• 2024 margin: R (+15.2) · D 41.6% · R 56.8% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.2 2020: R+14.6 2016: R+19.4 2012: R+15.5 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -63.88%
• Current HPI: 230.5702
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Midland, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+214.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $178,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2001-10-24 Sold (Public Records) $64,000 Public Records
• 2000-08-07 Sold (Public Records) $56,850 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,098 · -12.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.