7 Secora Rd Unit H18

Spring Valley, NY 10952

$209,000F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,078 sqft · Built 1968 · Condo · Pending · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,514/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax + insurance: −$404
• HOA: −$1,206
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$528
• Net cashflow: $-719/mo
• Annual: $-8,633/yr
• Cap rate: 2.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.61%
• DSCR: 0.39
• 1% rule: 1.20%
• Cash to close: $58,520

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $209k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-719 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $209k).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($206k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $206k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#588 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety B+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• East Ramapo Central School District (Spring Valley) (suburban): math 22% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #576 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; HOA is 48% of rent.
• Market conditions: 153 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 429 units permitted in Rockland County in 2024 (231 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Rockland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $209k implies a 179% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?