7 Secora Rd Unit H18 · Spring Valley, NY 10952

$209,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,078 sqft · Condo · 21 Days on market

Built 1968 $194/sqft · 5% below area Est $221k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Cash flow +3.2/30.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Valley View Gardens! Rarely does a true 2 bedroom come up for sale like this! Fabulous location with easy access to parking. Move right into this beautiful walk-in (main level) unit featuring an updated kitchen with granite counters and new appliances, 2 spacious bedrooms, 2 full baths, a walk-in closet, windows overlooking the courtyard, and a front patio. This community offers an inground pool, community center, basement storage unit, and more! Walking distance to Route 59 for the bus, shopping, the library, and schools.

Key facts

• Front patio
• Walk-in closet
• New appliances

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• NEW APPLIANCES
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• FRONT PATIO
• INGROUND POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $209k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-719 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $209k).
• Recommended offer: $206k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#588 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety B+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• East Ramapo Central School District (Spring Valley) (suburban): math 22% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #576 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 153 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 429 units permitted in Rockland County in 2024 (231 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rockland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($206k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $209k implies a 179% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; HOA is 48% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,865 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 2.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.61%
• DSCR: 0.39
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $221,060
• List price: $209,000
• Delta: -5.46%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -43.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.35×
• Total profit: $-78,876
• Equity at exit: $31,163

10-year hold

• IRR: -71.4%
• Equity multiple: -1.13×
• Total profit: $-124,384
• Equity at exit: $18,071

Cash invested: $58,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10952

• Active inventory: 153
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,514 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$261 /mo · $3,135/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA est. from 1 same-building comp: −$1,206
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$528
• Net cashflow: $-719

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,425

Max offer price $104,894

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-575	-5% $-647	+0% $-719	+5% $-792	+10% $-864
Rent	-10% $-918	-5% $-819	+0% $-719	+5% $-620	+10% $-521
Rate	-1.0pp $-614	-0.5pp $-666	base $-719	+0.5pp $-774	+1.0pp $-829

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,250
• Closing costs: $6,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
715 Kennedy Dr Spring Valley, NY	2.0	2.0	1039	$2,650	$2.55	25d	1	0.07mi
709 Kennedy Dr Spring Valley, NY	2.0	1.0	817	$2,500	$3.06	7d	1	0.07mi
15 Summit Ave Spring Valley, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,700	$2.12	44d	2	0.44mi
127 Pipetown Hill Rd Nanuet, NY	2.0	2.5	1065	$2,750	$2.58	44d	1	1.30mi
304 Town Hill Rd Nanuet, NY	1.0	1.0	800	$2,625	$3.28	5d	1	1.36mi
401 Town Hill Rd Unit 1D Nanuet, NY	1.0	1.0	844	$2,400	$2.84	44d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 528-char remark

   Show marketing remark (528 chars)

   Valley View Gardens! Rarely does a true 2 bedroom come up for sale like this! Fabulous location with easy access to parking. Move right into this beautiful walk-in (main level) unit featuring an updated kitchen with granite counters and new appliances, 2 spacious bedrooms, 2 full baths, a walk-in closet, windows overlooking the courtyard, and a front patio. This community offers an inground pool, community center, basement storage unit, and more! Walking distance to Route 59 for the bus, shopping, the library, and schools.

2. 2026-04-17
   listed $209,000 Active 528-char remark

   Show marketing remark (528 chars)

   Valley View Gardens! Rarely does a true 2 bedroom come up for sale like this! Fabulous location with easy access to parking. Move right into this beautiful walk-in (main level) unit featuring an updated kitchen with granite counters and new appliances, 2 spacious bedrooms, 2 full baths, a walk-in closet, windows overlooking the courtyard, and a front patio. This community offers an inground pool, community center, basement storage unit, and more! Walking distance to Route 59 for the bus, shopping, the library, and schools.

3. 2012-04-24
   historical
4. 2011-10-24
   listed
5. 2003-02-24
   soldstatus $75,000
6. 2002-10-24
   historical
7. 2002-10-10
   listed $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,174
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,707
• − Property taxes: −$3,135
• − Insurance: −$1,712
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,414
• − Management: −$2,414
• − HOA: −$14,472
• − Depreciation: −$6,080
• Taxable loss: −$11,760
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,822
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,811/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Ramapo Central School District (Spring Valley)
• NCES district ID: 3627810
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,547
• Composite: 25.6/100
• National rank: #7418
• State rank: #576 of 590 in NY

Livability — Spring Valley

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #588
• US rank: #10623

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment D+ Housing C Health & safety B+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring Valley, NY
• City population: 71,465
• Population (ZIP): 47,169

Population outlook (Rockland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 339,642 people
• By 2030: 345,987 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 357,178 · +5.2%
• By 2050: 362,456 · +6.7%
• By 2075: 367,281 · +8.1%
• By 2100: 328,211 · -3.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Italian 5% Hispanic 5%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · German/W. Germanic 55% French/Haitian/Cajun 5% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Rockland

• 2024 margin: R (+11.8) · D 44.1% · R 55.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.7pp toward R · 2008: 5.9pp · 2024: -11.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.8 2020: D+1.7 2016: D+5.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+5.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -671.35%
• Current HPI: 399.2068
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+178.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Listed $209,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-04-24 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2011-10-24 Listed — HGMLS
• 2003-02-24 Sold (MLS) $75,000 HGMLS
• 2002-10-24 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2002-10-10 Listed $75,000 HGMLS