346 Webb St

Smithville, TX 78957

$309,000D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,330 sqft · Built 2025 · SingleFamily · Pending · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,600/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,620
• Tax + insurance: −$646
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$546
• Net cashflow: $-212/mo
• Annual: $-2,547/yr
• Cap rate: 5.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.94%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $86,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $309k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-212 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $272k (12.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (15.9% below list).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $260k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#577 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Smithville ISD (town): math 42% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #333 of 826 in TX (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Smithville El (math 49% / reading 41%, grade D-, #1,133 of 4,322 statewide, top 27%, 702 students, 55% FRL); Smithville J H (math 38% / reading 42%, grade F, #646 of 1,662 statewide, top 40%, 412 students, 51% FRL); Smithville H S (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #730 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 575 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 251 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,841 units permitted in Bastrop County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bastrop County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.0% in Smithville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.