346 Webb St · Smithville, TX 78957

$309,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,330 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 8,276 sqft lot $133/sqft · 8% below area Est $331k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.5/15.0
• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Includes all appliances — refrigerator, range, dishwasher, washer, dryer — along with 2” faux wood blinds. Welcome to Smithville, where historic charm meets small-town living, with nearby parks, recreation, and shopping. Situated on a . 19-acre lot with mature trees, this 2,291 sq ft two-story home offers a well-designed layout with a spacious, fenced backyard. Inside, you’ll find 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, high ceilings, tile/Vinyl flooring throughout, and an open living and dining concept. The main level also includes a half bath and ample storage. The kitchen is engineered for both function and style, featuring granite countertops, a large island, eat-in dining ar

Key facts

• Custom cabinetry
• Generous pantry
• Large island

Tags

• INCLUDES ALL APPLIANCES
• FENCED BACKYARD
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE ISLAND
• GENEROUS PANTRY
• CUSTOM CABINETRY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (details to be determined, fees billed annually); Community mailbox; Internet access; Street lights; Sidewalks and curbs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; Garage faces front; 2 covered garage spaces (2-car garage); Concrete driveway; Total of 4 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Underground utilities; Cable available; High speed internet available
• Home design: Two-story home; New construction; Faces south; Slab foundation
• Construction: Board and batten siding; HardiPlank type siding; Stone veneer accents; Shingle roof; Spray foam insulation; Built by Don Barker Homes, Inc.
• Exterior features: Rear covered porch; Front porch; Rain gutters; Fenced backyard with privacy wood fence; Sprinkler system (front and rear, automatic); Landscaped; Interior lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite counters; Kitchen island; Pantry; Eat-in kitchen
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Soaking tub; Double vanity
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric heat pump); Central air (electric heat pump); Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Built-in features; Ceiling fan(s); Double vanity; Eat-in kitchen; Granite counters; High ceilings; Kitchen island; Open floorplan; Pantry; Recessed lighting; Storage; Soaking tub; Wired for data; Walk-in closet(s); High speed internet; Blinds; Low emissivity windows; Vinyl windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on upper level; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer; Plumbed for ice maker

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $309k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-212 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $272k (12.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (15.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $260k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.0% in Smithville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#577 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Smithville ISD (town): math 42% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #333 of 826 in TX (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 251 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,841 units permitted in Bastrop County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bastrop County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $260,000 (15.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.94%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $331,445
• List price: $309,000
• Delta: -6.77%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
346 Webb St	0.00mi	3/2.5	2,291 (-2%)	0mo	$309,000	$135	97
113 Callie St	0.12mi	3/2.5	2,291 (-2%)	2mo	$324,990	$142	90
106 Callie St	0.07mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,638 (+13%)	2mo	$379,990	$144	64
341 Webb St	0.10mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,132 (-8%)	20mo	$414,900	$195	58
200 Garwood St	0.69mi	3/2.0	2,351 (+1%)	10mo	$499,000	$212	56
332 Webb St	0.10mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,132 (-8%)	22mo	$434,900	$204	56
108 Callie St	0.08mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,033 (-13%)	19mo	$385,000	$189	52
401 Mills St	0.73mi	3/3.0	2,276 (-2%)	12mo	$449,900	$198	50
336 Webb St	0.10mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,033 (-13%)	24mo	$420,000	$207	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-63,468
• Equity at exit: $46,073

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-72,185
• Equity at exit: $26,717

Cash invested: $86,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78957

• Home prices YoY: -22.3%
• Active inventory: 251
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,620
• Tax from tax record: −$517 /mo · $6,204/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$546
• Net cashflow: $-212

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,869

Max offer price $271,512

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-37	-5% $-125	+0% $-212	+5% $-300	+10% $-387
Rent	-10% $-418	-5% $-315	+0% $-212	+5% $-110	+10% $-7
Rate	-1.0pp $-57	-0.5pp $-134	base $-212	+0.5pp $-292	+1.0pp $-374

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,250
• Closing costs: $9,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
109 Les Ln Smithville, TX	3.0	2.0	1822	$2,600	$1.43	45d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-05
   listed $309,000 Active 1828-char remark
2. 2026-03-18
   price
3. 2026-02-14
   price
4. 2025-12-31
   price
5. 2025-08-13
   price
6. 2025-07-24
   historical $2,700
7. 2025-07-20
   listed $2,700
8. 2025-06-04
   price
9. 2025-02-19
   listed Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,204 · $517/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,204 · $517/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,309
• − Property taxes: −$6,204
• − Insurance: −$1,545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,496
• − Management: −$2,496
• − Depreciation: −$8,989
• Taxable loss: −$7,839
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,881
• After-tax cash flow: $-665/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained two-story home in Smithville offers a good condition with minimal repairs needed. It's ready for a fresh coat of paint and landscaping to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves functionality and aesthetics
• Both New kitchen backsplash — Enhances functionality and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New kitchen backsplash — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Smithville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840550
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,794
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4776
• State rank: #333 of 826 in TX

Livability — Smithville

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #577
• US rank: #11003

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Smithville, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,282

Population outlook (Bastrop County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,260 people
• By 2030: 101,355 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 115,578 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 129,464 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 168,068 · +78.3%
• By 2100: 194,857 · +106.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 19% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Iranian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 13%

Political lean MEDSL · Bastrop

• 2024 margin: R (+18.4) · D 40.2% · R 58.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -18.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.4 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.22%
• Current HPI: 275.3765
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+11344.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-19 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $309,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-14 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-12-31 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-08-13 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-07-24 Rental Removed $2,700 ACTRIS
• 2025-07-20 Listed for Rent $2,700 ACTRIS
• 2025-06-04 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-02-19 Listed — Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+146.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,204 · +500.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.