3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,525 sqft ·
Built 1974
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 18 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,291/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,253
Tax + insurance
−$166
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$481
Net cashflow
$391/mo
Annual
$4,687/yr
Cap rate
8.25%
Cash-on-cash
7.00%
DSCR
1.31
1% rule
0.96%
Cash to close
$66,920
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $239k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $391 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (4.1% below list).
It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $229k (4.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 83/100 on livability (#55 in FL, #965 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
Volusia (suburban): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #47 of 73 in FL (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Pine Trail Elementary School (math 77% / reading 72%, grade A, #230 of 2,144 statewide, top 12%, 688 students, 45% FRL); Ormond Beach Middle School (math 57% / reading 55%, grade B-, #175 of 571 statewide, top 31%, 990 students, 48% FRL); Mainland High School (math 30% / reading 37%, grade F, #400 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 1,855 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 989 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,402 units permitted in Volusia County in 2024 (681 in 5+ unit buildings).
Volusia County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
6 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $159k; list at $239k implies a 51% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.8% in Ormond Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-H9734KBN9H4KD6
· Data 4 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29