7538 33rd St

Lubbock, TX 79407

$185,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,267 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Pending · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,641/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax + insurance: −$399
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $-72/mo
• Annual: $-869/yr
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.68%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $51,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-72 ($-869/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (6.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (11.3% below list).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $164k (11.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Frenship ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #162 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Willow Bend El (math 34% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,744 of 4,322 statewide, top 41%, 730 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 36% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Frenship ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 610 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.