7538 33rd St · Lubbock, TX 79407

$185,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,267 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 4,269 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Built in 2022, this beautifully maintained home at 7538 33rd Street in Lubbock offers the perfect blend of modern style and low-maintenance living. With 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and 1,248 square feet, the thoughtfully designed open-concept layout creates a bright and inviting space ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen flows seamlessly into the living and dining areas, making it easy to gather with family and friends. The private primary suite provides a comfortable retreat with its own full bath, while two additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, a home office, or growing families. This home also has a new water softening system that filters the water t

Key facts

• Modern finishes
• Energy efficiency
• Yard for relaxing

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• NEW WATER SOFTENING SYSTEM
• MODERN FINISHES
• ENERGY EFFICIENCY
• YARD FOR RELAXING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-72 ($-869/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (6.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (11.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $164k (11.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Frenship ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #162 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Willow Bend El (math 34% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,744 of 4,322 statewide, top 41%, 730 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 36% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Frenship ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 610 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,119 (11.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.68%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-39,318
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-58,435
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79407

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 610
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,641 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$322 /mo · $3,860/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $-72

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,733

Max offer price $172,212

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $32	-5% $-20	+0% $-72	+5% $-125	+10% $-177
Rent	-10% $-202	-5% $-137	+0% $-72	+5% $-8	+10% $57
Rate	-1.0pp $21	-0.5pp $-25	base $-72	+0.5pp $-120	+1.0pp $-169

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7541 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,500	$1.16	22d	1	0.02mi
7535 32nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,395	$1.25	44d	1	0.07mi
7420 35th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1247	$1,500	$1.20	44d	1	0.36mi
7413 35th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1247	$1,475	$1.18	22d	1	0.41mi
2911 Urbana Pl Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1452	$1,800	$1.24	22d	1	0.58mi
7324 26th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	936	$850	$0.91	44d	1	0.71mi
7222 35th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,935	$1.33	44d	1	0.73mi
3518 Turner Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,199	$1.52	44d	1	0.74mi
3414 Tiffin Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,799	$1.16	14d	1	0.82mi
2801 Trenton Ave Unit LO Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1722	$1,799	$1.04	22d	1	0.89mi
7024 40th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,600	$1.07	44d	1	0.92mi
2612 Tiffin Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,775	$1.11	14d	1	0.93mi
2625 Tiffin Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1552	$1,800	$1.16	44d	1	0.93mi
7022 40th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,600	$1.07	44d	1	0.94mi
7216 24th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1732	$1,700	$0.98	44d	1	0.94mi
7036 41st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$1,895	$1.18	22d	1	0.97mi
2617 Garland Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1703	$2,000	$1.17	22d	1	1.13mi
8607 29th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,749	$1.30	44d	1	1.22mi
2603 Harmony Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,749	$1.21	22d	1	1.24mi
2603 Harmony Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,749	$1.21	14d	1	1.24mi
6927 20th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1611	$1,599	$0.99	22d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-27
   soldstatus
2. 2026-04-03
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-25
   historical Active Option Contract
4. 2026-03-16
   listed $185,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,860 · $322/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,860 · $322/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,694
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$3,860
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,576
• − Management: −$1,576
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$3,987
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$957
• After-tax cash flow: $88/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2022-built home offers a modern and well-maintained interior with a good condition exterior. It is ready for immediate occupancy and minor cosmetic updates could further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value.
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition and reduces maintenance costs for tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value. ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition and reduces maintenance costs for tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frenship ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819830
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,376
• Composite: 43.59/100
• National rank: #2976
• State rank: #162 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,000
• Household income: $61,509
• Rent vs Own: 52.8% rent · 47.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1914.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.87%
• Current HPI: 229.9895
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.07%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-04-03 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-25 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $185,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+87.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,860 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.