654 E Fox Hills Dr

Pontiac, MI 48304

$150,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,052 sqft · Built 1969 · Condo · Pending · 109 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,812/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax + insurance: −$338
• HOA: −$370
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
• Net cashflow: $-63/mo
• Annual: $-759/yr
• Cap rate: 5.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.81%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 1.21%
• Cash to close: $42,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-63 ($-759/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $139k (7.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $136k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#499 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, crime F, amenities F.
• Bloomfield Hills Schools (suburban): math 65% / reading 74% proficiency, ranked #5 of 540 in MI (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Eastover Elementary School (math 82% / reading 77%, grade A, #21 of 1,397 statewide, top 2%, 456 students, 16% FRL); East Hills Middle School (math 62% / reading 70%, grade A-, #35 of 493 statewide, top 7%, 571 students, 16% FRL); Bloomfield Hills High School (math 59% / reading 82%, grade B+, #32 of 713 statewide, top 4%, 1,598 students, 14% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 20% of rent.
• Market conditions: 132 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 12 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 10245% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $150k implies a 108% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($143k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?