654 E Fox Hills Dr · Pontiac, MI 48304

$150,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,052 sqft · Condo public records · 109 Days on market

Built 1969 $370/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Second floor condo with more than 1000 square feet. This condo offers 2 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and has updated paint & flooring throughout. Living room has windows on two sides bringing in natural light, and is open to the dining area. Primary bedroom has a private, ensuite bath. In-unit laundry for convenience. Covered parking. Easy access to I-75. Bloomfield Hills schools.

Key facts

• Open to dining area
• Updated paint
• Natural light

Tags

• UPDATED PAINT
• UPDATED FLOORING
• NATURAL LIGHT
• OPEN TO DINING AREA
• PRIVATE ENSUITE BATH
• IN-UNIT LAUNDRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-63 ($-759/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $139k (7.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#499 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, crime F, amenities F.
• Bloomfield Hills Schools (suburban): math 65% / reading 74% proficiency, ranked #5 of 540 in MI (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Eastover Elementary School (math 82% / reading 77%, grade A, #21 of 1,397 statewide, top 2%, 456 students, 16% FRL); East Hills Middle School (math 62% / reading 70%, grade A-, #35 of 493 statewide, top 7%, 571 students, 16% FRL); Bloomfield Hills High School (math 59% / reading 82%, grade B+, #32 of 713 statewide, top 4%, 1,598 students, 14% FRL).
• Market conditions: 132 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($143k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 10245% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $150k implies a 108% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 20% of rent.

Recommended offer $136,500 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.81%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-28,026
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-28,337
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48304

• Active inventory: 132
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,812 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$276 /mo · $3,307/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$370
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
• Net cashflow: $-63

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,892

Max offer price $138,827

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $22	-5% $-21	+0% $-63	+5% $-106	+10% $-148
Rent	-10% $-206	-5% $-135	+0% $-63	+5% $8	+10% $80
Rate	-1.0pp $12	-0.5pp $-25	base $-63	+0.5pp $-102	+1.0pp $-142

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
E Fox Hills Dr Bloomfield Twp, MI	2.0	2.0	1055	$1,300	$1.23	18d	1	0.06mi
433 Fox Hills Dr S #5 Bloomfield Hills, MI	2.0	2.0	1089	$1,700	$1.56	14d	1	0.22mi
444 N Fox Hills Dr #3 Bloomfield Twp, MI	2.0	2.0	1089	$1,598	$1.47	25d	1	0.25mi
444 N Fox Hills Dr #7 Bloomfield Twp, MI	2.0	2.0	1089	$1,550	$1.42	25d	1	0.25mi
806 Bloomfield Village Blvd Unit K Auburn Hills, MI	2.0	1.0	881	$1,500	$1.70	45d	1	1.04mi
676 Sheffield Rd Auburn Hills, MI	3.0	1.5	1421	$2,495	$1.76	0d	1	1.05mi
2862 Tall Oaks Ct Auburn Hills, MI	2.0	2.0	987	$1,512	$1.53	0d	6	1.09mi
3161 Bloomfield Ln Auburn Hills, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	937	$1,499	$1.60	1d	22	1.14mi
42522 Woodward Ave Bloomfield Twp, MI	2.0	2.0	1300	$3,300	$2.54	0d	1	1.17mi
100 W Hickory Grove Rd Bloomfield Hills, MI	2.0	1.5–2.0	1032	$1,700	$1.65	14d	2	1.25mi
100 W Hickory Grove Rd Bloomfield Hills, MI	2.0	1.0–2.0	1032	$1,625	$1.57	26d	3	1.25mi
2081 Oaknoll St Auburn Hills, MI	2.0	2.0	860	$1,600	$1.86	45d	1	1.29mi
124 Alice Ave Bloomfield Township, MI	3.0	1.0	1440	$2,000	$1.39	6d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $370 · $4,440/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-01-27
   historical $1,400
2. 2026-01-23
   status Pending 384-char remark

   Show marketing remark (384 chars)

   Second floor condo with more than 1000 square feet. This condo offers 2 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and has updated paint & flooring throughout. Living room has windows on two sides bringing in natural light, and is open to the dining area. Primary bedroom has a private, ensuite bath. In-unit laundry for convenience. Covered parking. Easy access to I-75. Bloomfield Hills schools.

3. 2026-01-23
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (384 chars)

   Second floor condo with more than 1000 square feet. This condo offers 2 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and has updated paint & flooring throughout. Living room has windows on two sides bringing in natural light, and is open to the dining area. Primary bedroom has a private, ensuite bath. In-unit laundry for convenience. Covered parking. Easy access to I-75. Bloomfield Hills schools.

4. 2025-11-11
   price $150,000 384-char remark

   Show marketing remark (384 chars)

   Second floor condo with more than 1000 square feet. This condo offers 2 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and has updated paint & flooring throughout. Living room has windows on two sides bringing in natural light, and is open to the dining area. Primary bedroom has a private, ensuite bath. In-unit laundry for convenience. Covered parking. Easy access to I-75. Bloomfield Hills schools.

5. 2025-11-10
   price $150,000
6. 2025-10-30
   price $1,400
7. 2025-10-09
   listed $1,450
8. 2025-10-06
   listed $159,999 Active

   Show marketing remark (384 chars)

   Second floor condo with more than 1000 square feet. This condo offers 2 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and has updated paint & flooring throughout. Living room has windows on two sides bringing in natural light, and is open to the dining area. Primary bedroom has a private, ensuite bath. In-unit laundry for convenience. Covered parking. Easy access to I-75. Bloomfield Hills schools.

9. 2025-10-06
   listed $159,999 Active 384-char remark

   Show marketing remark (384 chars)

   Second floor condo with more than 1000 square feet. This condo offers 2 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and has updated paint & flooring throughout. Living room has windows on two sides bringing in natural light, and is open to the dining area. Primary bedroom has a private, ensuite bath. In-unit laundry for convenience. Covered parking. Easy access to I-75. Bloomfield Hills schools.

10. 2025-09-18
    historical
11. 2025-09-02
    price $159,999
12. 2025-09-02
    price $159,999
13. 2025-08-27
    price $169,999
14. 2025-08-27
    price $169,999
15. 2025-04-22
    status Active
16. 2025-04-21
    historical
17. 2025-02-19
    price $175,000
18. 2025-02-18
    status Active
19. 2025-02-18
    status Active
20. 2025-02-18
    price $175,000
21. 2025-01-14
    historical
22. 2025-01-14
    historical
23. 2024-07-18
    listed $195,000 Active
24. 2024-07-18
    listed $195,000 Active
25. 2024-07-09
    historical $1,400
26. 2024-06-06
    listed $1,400
27. 2024-06-06
    historical $1,400
28. 2024-02-17
    listed $1,400
29. 2024-02-17
    historical $1,400
30. 2024-02-17
    listed $1,400
31. 2024-02-17
    historical $1,400
32. 2024-01-28
    listed $1,400
33. 1998-06-22
    soldstatus $72,000
34. 1993-06-24
    soldstatus $65,190

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,307 · $276/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,307 · $276/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,743
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$3,307
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,739
• − Management: −$1,739
• − HOA: −$4,440
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$2,998
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$720
• After-tax cash flow: $-39/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bloomfield Hills Schools
• NCES district ID: 2606090
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 74% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $117,848
• Composite: 65.41/100
• National rank: #481
• State rank: #5 of 540 in MI

Livability — Pontiac

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #499
• US rank: #14703

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Oakland County · 1,009,092 people
• City population: 44,593
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 17,387
• Household income: $143,204
• Rent vs Own: 11.3% rent · 88.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 85.0

Population outlook (Oakland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,335,747 people
• By 2030: 1,375,100 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 1,435,385 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 1,469,250 · +10.0%
• By 2075: 1,531,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 1,450,485 · +8.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Asian 10% Two or more races 4% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Other Indo-European 6% Arabic 5% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Oakland

• 2024 margin: D (+10.6) · D 54.4% · R 43.8% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: 14.5pp · 2024: 10.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.6 2020: D+14.1 2016: D+8.1 2012: D+8.1 2008: D+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -195.96%
• Current HPI: 160.6477
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-97.9% since first listed

34 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-27 Rental Removed $1,400 REALSOURCE
• 2026-01-23 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-01-23 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2025-11-11 Price Changed $150,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $150,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $1,400 REALSOURCE
• 2025-10-09 Listed for Rent $1,450 REALSOURCE
• 2025-10-06 Listed $159,999 REALCOMP
• 2025-10-06 Listed $159,999 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-09-18 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-09-02 Price Changed $159,999 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-09-02 Price Changed $159,999 REALCOMP
• 2025-08-27 Price Changed $169,999 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-08-27 Price Changed $169,999 REALCOMP
• 2025-04-22 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2025-04-21 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2025-02-19 Price Changed $175,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-02-18 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-02-18 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2025-02-18 Price Changed $175,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-01-14 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2025-01-14 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-07-18 Listed $195,000 REALCOMP
• 2024-07-18 Listed $195,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-07-09 Rental Removed $1,400 SWMMLS
• 2024-06-06 Listed for Rent $1,400 SWMMLS
• 2024-06-06 Rental Removed $1,400 REALCOMP
• 2024-02-17 Listed for Rent $1,400 REALCOMP
• 2024-02-17 Rental Removed $1,400 AAMLS
• 2024-02-17 Listed for Rent $1,400 AAMLS
• 2024-02-17 Rental Removed $1,400 REALCOMP
• 2024-01-28 Listed for Rent $1,400 REALCOMP
• 1998-06-22 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records
• 1993-06-24 Sold (Public Records) $65,190 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,307 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.