2117 Welch Dr

Hermann, MO 65041

$49,900B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 681 sqft · Built 1958 · SingleFamily · Pending · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $821/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax + insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$172
• Net cashflow: $342/mo
• Annual: $4,109/yr
• Cap rate: 14.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.41%
• DSCR: 2.31
• 1% rule: 1.65%
• Cash to close: $13,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $342 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($821 rent vs $50k).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#66 in MO, #4,524 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Gasconade County R-I (rural): math 44% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #86 of 324 in MO (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hermann Elem. (math 24% / reading 44%, grade F, #676 of 1,115 statewide, top 66%, 249 students, 51% FRL); Hermann High (math 42% / reading 62%, grade D+, #92 of 521 statewide, top 20%, 323 students, 38% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 60 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Gasconade County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gasconade County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 14.5% vs local median 2.6% in Hermann — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.