2117 Welch Dr · Hermann, MO 65041

$49,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 681 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1958 0.44 ac lot Est $50k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.3/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Appreciation +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Looking for a home away from home on the Gasconade River?!?! Look no further! This charming 2 bedroom, 1 bath resistance is ready for its new family! Inside, an open concept living and dining room, large kitchen, full bathroom, a wood burning stove, and 2 spacious bedrooms provide the perfect retreat. Step outside to your covered deck and enjoy a stunning view of the Gasconade River! The river lot also has a shed for all your tools, and fishing equipment, a well, and a nice well-kept level front yard. Seller is planning on leaving the furniture and kitchen appliances. Don't miss this opportunity- Call today!!!

Key facts

• 0.44 acre lot
• Built 1958
• Listed 6 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; No sewer; Electric service (other)
• Home design: Residential cabin; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Waterfront location

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Wood-burning and space heaters; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Adjoins wooded area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $342 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($821 rent vs $50k).
• Cap rate 14.5% vs local median 2.6% in Hermann — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#66 in MO, #4,524 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Gasconade County R-I (rural): math 44% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #86 of 324 in MO (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hermann Elem. (math 24% / reading 44%, grade F, #676 of 1,115 statewide, top 66%, 249 students, 51% FRL); Hermann High (math 42% / reading 62%, grade D+, #92 of 521 statewide, top 20%, 323 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: 60 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Gasconade County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gasconade County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $49,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.41%
• DSCR: 2.31
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $49,713
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2117 Welch Dr	0.00mi	2/1.0	681 (0%)	1mo	$49,900	$73	99
2163 Welch Dr	0.20mi	1/1.0 (-1)	704 (+3%)	10mo	$30,000	$43	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $13,711
• Equity at exit: $7,440

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.86×
• Total profit: $39,974
• Equity at exit: $4,314

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65041

• Home prices YoY: -1.3%
• Active inventory: 60
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $821 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$24 /mo · $284/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$172
• Net cashflow: $342

Break-even live

Break-even rent $388

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-25
   listed $49,900 Active
3. 2026-04-23
   historical $49,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $284 · $24/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $484 · $40/mo
• Expected delta: +$200/yr (+$17/mo · 70.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,852
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$284
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$788
• − Management: −$788
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $3,495
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$839
• After-tax cash flow: $3,270/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gasconade County R-I
• NCES district ID: 2914280
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $44,397
• Composite: 38.92/100
• National rank: #4090
• State rank: #86 of 324 in MO

Livability — Hermann

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #66
• US rank: #4524

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,559

Population outlook (Gasconade County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,190 people
• By 2030: 13,687 · -3.5%
• By 2040: 12,480 · -12.1%
• By 2050: 11,227 · -20.9%
• By 2075: 8,878 · -37.4%
• By 2100: 6,570 · -53.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gasconade

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.2) · D 19.4% · R 79.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.2pp toward R · 2008: -24.0pp · 2024: -60.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.2 2020: R+58.3 2016: R+55.8 2012: R+39.2 2008: R+24.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.04%
• Current HPI: 307.8
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-25 Listed $49,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Coming Soon $49,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $284 · +14.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.