280 Grassy Key Ln

Winding Cypress, FL 34114

$174,900C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built 1979 · Manufactured · Active · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,738/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax + insurance: −$718
• HOA: −$125
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $-387/mo
• Annual: $-4,646/yr
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.96%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $48,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-387 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $119k (32.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (0.6% below list).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $119k (32.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Manatee Elementary School (math 58% / reading 51%, grade C, #892 of 2,144 statewide, top 44%, 584 students, 73% FRL); Manatee Middle School (math 61% / reading 43%, grade C+, #217 of 571 statewide, top 40%, 749 students, 64% FRL); Lely High School (math 40% / reading 39%, grade F, #304 of 667 statewide, top 47%, 1,504 students, 54% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 904 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: kitchen cabinets — dated design
• Minor: kitchen countertops — dated design
• Minor: bathroom fixtures — dated design