280 Grassy Key Ln · Winding Cypress, FL 34114

$174,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Manufactured · 38 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1979 Good condition 3,049 sqft lot $125/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Adorable home in the fun-festive community of West Wind Estates. This super cute 2 bed 2 bath home has been lovingly cared for. Both baths have been upgraded, the master bath with a walk in tiled shower with seat, the guest bath with an oversized updated tub. The front screened lanai has newer removable windows and is the perfect place to enjoy the Florida weather. The home features a newer roof and AC and updated plumbing and windows. A very deep 45 foot carport, long enough to protect your boat, and a double-wide drive for plenty of parking. You can also keep a boat, RV, or other toys in the gated community storage lot for a very low fee. Home is a short distance to the heated pool, huge

Key facts

• Removable windows
• Upgraded baths
• Deep carport

Tags

• UPGRADED BATHS
• WALK IN TILED SHOWER
• OVERSIZED UPDATED TUB
• SCREENED LANAI
• REMOVABLE WINDOWS
• DEEP CARPORT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: One unit in building; 270 units in complex; Single-floor unit; Property is part of a managed condominium-style community
• HOA & community: Monthly condo fee of $125; Total annual recurring fees approximately $1,500; One-time fees approximately $195; Professional management; Community amenities: billiards, boat storage, clubhouse, common laundry, community pool, community room, exercise room, extra storage, library, pickleball, shuffleboard, tennis courts; Maintenance covered: insurance, laundry facilities, legal/accounting, manager, reserves; Community type: mobile/manufactured, non-gated; Located in WEST WIND ESTATES

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking with 2+ spaces; Attached carport (1 space)
• Security: Shutters
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Electric service (central)
• Home design: Manufactured residential home; Florida-style building; Built in 1979; Single story; Rear exposure faces south; Zero lot line
• Construction: Manufactured construction; Vinyl siding exterior; Roof over
• Exterior features: Fruit trees; Sliding windows; Shutters for storm protection; Vinyl siding; Roof over

Interior

• Kitchen: Island; Pantry; Electric cooktop; Double oven; Wall oven; Range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator / freezer
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms; Master bedroom on ground level
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with shower only
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling; Cable available
• Interior features: Bar; Built-in cabinets; High-speed internet available; Laundry tub; Pantry; Wet bar; Window coverings; Great room floor plan; Turnkey furnished; One ceiling fan; Four total rooms; Island in kitchen
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry in garage; Laundry tub

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-387 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $119k (32.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (0.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $119k (32.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Manatee Elementary School (math 58% / reading 51%, grade C, #892 of 2,144 statewide, top 44%, 584 students, 73% FRL); Manatee Middle School (math 61% / reading 43%, grade C+, #217 of 571 statewide, top 40%, 749 students, 64% FRL); Lely High School (math 40% / reading 39%, grade F, #304 of 667 statewide, top 47%, 1,504 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 904 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,876 (32.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.96%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.48% appreciation · 3.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-40,856
• Equity at exit: $38,218

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-53,875
• Equity at exit: $36,815

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34114

• Home prices YoY: -0.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 904
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,738 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$219 /mo · $2,624/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$125
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $-387

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,228

Max offer price $118,876

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-266	-5% $-327	+0% $-387	+5% $-448	+10% $-508
Rent	-10% $-524	-5% $-456	+0% $-387	+5% $-319	+10% $-250
Rate	-1.0pp $-299	-0.5pp $-343	base $-387	+0.5pp $-432	+1.0pp $-479

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
130 Grassy Key Ln Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,850	$1.48	16d	1	0.17mi
130 Grassy Key Ln #37 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,795	$1.44	16d	1	0.17mi
2235 Yellowfin Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1500	$2,795	$1.86	25d	1	1.12mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $125 · $1,500/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $174,900 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,900 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,900 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,900 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,900 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $174,900 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $174,900 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $174,900 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $174,900 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $174,900 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $174,900 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $174,900 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $174,900 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,900 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $174,900 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    listed $174,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 98% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,857
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$2,624
• − Insurance: −$5,993
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,669
• − Management: −$1,669
• − HOA: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable loss: −$7,482
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,796
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,850/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 21 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained manufactured home in West Wind Estates offers a good condition with cosmetic updates needed to enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — dated design
• Minor kitchen countertops — dated design
• Minor bathroom fixtures — dated design

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both replace kitchen countertops — modernizes kitchen and improves functionality
• Both update bathroom fixtures — enhances bathroom aesthetics and functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated design	Minor	$500–3,000
kitchen countertops · dated design	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom fixtures · dated design	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replace kitchen countertops — modernizes kitchen and improves functionality ↑
• Both update bathroom fixtures — enhances bathroom aesthetics and functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winding Cypress

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,559
• Household income: $89,334
• Rent vs Own: 15.3% rent · 84.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 550.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 5% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.48%
• Current HPI: 266.5545
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $174,900 NAPLESMLS