Sequoia Plan

Visalia, CA 93291

$121,500B

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 900 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Active · 224 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,605/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$299
• Tax + insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $874/mo
• Annual: $10,489/yr
• Cap rate: 24.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 65.72%
• DSCR: 3.92
• 1% rule: 2.82%
• Cash to close: $15,960

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $122k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $874 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $122k).
• It's been on market 224 days — a 12% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $107k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $394 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#196 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: amenities D, crime D-, cost of living F.
• Visalia Unified (urban): math 30% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #273 of 517 in CA (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 552 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,447 units permitted in Tulare County in 2024 (307 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tulare County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 24.7% vs local median 3.3% in Visalia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 224 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.