100 Mustang Ln

Falcon, NC 28344

$84,900B+

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,296 sqft · Built 1999 · Other · Pending · 50 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,215/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$445
• Tax + insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $453/mo
• Annual: $5,440/yr
• Cap rate: 12.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.88%
• DSCR: 2.02
• 1% rule: 1.43%
• Cash to close: $23,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $85k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $453 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $82k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($587 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (5.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#225 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Sampson County Schools (rural): math 40% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #114 of 178 in NC (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Midway Elementary (math 33% / reading 41%, grade F, #771 of 1,410 statewide, top 57%, 532 students, 99% FRL); Midway Middle (math 52% / reading 48%, grade C, #113 of 475 statewide, top 25%, 550 students, 100% FRL); Midway High (math 82% / reading 42%, grade B-, #184 of 535 statewide, top 37%, 757 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 74% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 189 units permitted in Sampson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sampson County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (5.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.