100 Mustang Ln · Falcon, NC 28344

$84,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,296 sqft · Other public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1999 0.58 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on a spacious . 58-acre lot in rural Sampson County, just off Hwy 13 for easy commuting to Fayetteville, Clinton, and Dunn. A large covered front porch welcomes you and provides the perfect space to relax and enjoy peaceful country views. Inside, the home offers a functional split floor plan. Whether you're an investor, or someone looking for a property with space and opportunity, this home offers solid value in a convenient rural location with quick access to nearby towns. A great opportunity for rental potential, renovation, or long-term investment in a growing area.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Rural location
• Detached shelter

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• DETACHED SHELTER
• WORKSHOP
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• RURAL LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $453 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#225 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Sampson County Schools (rural): math 40% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #114 of 178 in NC (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Midway Elementary (math 33% / reading 41%, grade F, #771 of 1,410 statewide, top 57%, 532 students, 99% FRL); Midway Middle (math 52% / reading 48%, grade C, #113 of 475 statewide, top 25%, 550 students, 100% FRL); Midway High (math 82% / reading 42%, grade B-, #184 of 535 statewide, top 37%, 757 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 74% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 189 units permitted in Sampson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($587 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (5.6% local appreciation)).
• Sampson County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (5.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $82,353 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.88%
• DSCR: 2.02
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.64% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.17×
• Total profit: $51,548
• Equity at exit: $51,451

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.45×
• Total profit: $129,473
• Equity at exit: $91,689

Cash invested: $23,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28344

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,215 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$445
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $313/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $453

Break-even live

Break-even rent $641

Max offer price $84,900

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,225
• Closing costs: $2,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-01-15
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-25
   listed $84,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $313 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $696 · $58/mo
• Expected delta: +$384/yr (+$32/mo · 122.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,582
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,756
• − Property taxes: −$313
• − Insurance: −$424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,167
• − Management: −$1,167
• − Depreciation: −$2,470
• Taxable income: $4,286
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,029
• After-tax cash flow: $4,411/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sampson County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3704140
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $37,391
• Composite: 33.71/100
• National rank: #5379
• State rank: #114 of 178 in NC

Livability — Falcon

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #225
• US rank: #10562

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 192
• Population (ZIP): 4,265

Population outlook (Sampson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,499 people
• By 2030: 62,970 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 61,609 · -3.0%
• By 2050: 60,462 · -4.8%
• By 2075: 60,108 · -5.3%
• By 2100: 62,120 · -2.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 29% Black 24% Two or more races 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 29%

Political lean MEDSL · Sampson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.8) · D 34.8% · R 64.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.3pp toward R · 2008: -8.4pp · 2024: -29.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.8 2020: R+22.5 2016: R+16.7 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.64%
• Current HPI: 307.6371
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-15 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2025-11-25 Listed $84,900 Hive MLS

Property tax history

-4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $313 · +10.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.