4693 Robinson Union Rd

Cynthiana, KY 41031

$179,000D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Built 1991 · Manufactured · Active · 90 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,097/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax + insurance: −$298
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $-371/mo
• Annual: $-4,446/yr
• Cap rate: 3.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.87%
• DSCR: 0.61
• 1% rule: 0.61%
• Cash to close: $50,120

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $179k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-371 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $125k (30.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $110k (38.7% below list).
• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($168k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $110k (38.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#113 in KY, #4,911 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Harrison County (town): math 21% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #133 of 165 in KY (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Northside Elementary School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #572 of 676 statewide, top 88%, 297 students, 62% FRL); Harrison County Middle School (math 19% / reading 35%, grade F, #172 of 217 statewide, top 80%, 607 students, 58% FRL); Harrison County High School (math 29% / reading 41%, grade F, #74 of 254 statewide, top 29%, 865 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; 69 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harrison County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.