4693 Robinson Union Rd · Cynthiana, KY 41031

$179,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 90 Days on market

Built 1991 2.55 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cozy country living in this well-kept single-wide manufactured home featuring 2 bedrooms and 2 full baths. Nestled in a peaceful rural setting, it offers an open-concept living room and kitchen, plenty of natural light, and just the right amount of space for low maintenance living. Step outside to enjoy quiet mornings on the porch. Plenty of room to grow a garden, and the feel of rural living while still being a short drive to town amenities. Affordable, low maintenance, and move in ready, this property is ideal as a starter home, downsizing option, or weekend country retreat. Includes appliances (washer/dryer too!)

Key facts

• Includes appliances
• Natural light
• Move in ready

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING ROOM
• NATURAL LIGHT
• SHORT DRIVE TO TOWN AMENITIES
• MOVE IN READY
• INCLUDES APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot about 2.55 acres (public records)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water connected; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Cable available; Sewer available
• Home design: Manufactured house; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation; Metal roof; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Shed(s); Partial fencing; Few trees; Rural/Trees/Woods view

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 total rooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Has heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Ceiling fan(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup on main level; Electric dryer hookup; Washer, Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-112 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $163k (9.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (20.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $142k (20.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.5% in Cynthiana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#113 in KY, #4,911 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Harrison County (town): math 21% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #133 of 165 in KY (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Northside Elementary School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #572 of 676 statewide, top 88%, 297 students, 62% FRL); Harrison County Middle School (math 19% / reading 35%, grade F, #172 of 217 statewide, top 80%, 607 students, 58% FRL); Harrison County High School (math 29% / reading 41%, grade F, #74 of 254 statewide, top 29%, 865 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; 69 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harrison County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($168k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $142,445 (20.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.67%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $90,395
• Equity at exit: $161,257

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.42×
• Total profit: $271,835
• Equity at exit: $347,758

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41031

• Home prices YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 97
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,424 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$224 /mo · $2,685/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $-112

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,566

Max offer price $162,835

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $12	-5% $-50	+0% $-112	+5% $-174	+10% $-235
Rent	-10% $-224	-5% $-168	+0% $-112	+5% $-55	+10% $1
Rate	-1.0pp $-22	-0.5pp $-66	base $-112	+0.5pp $-158	+1.0pp $-205

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $179,000 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,000 Active 87 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,000 Active 86 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,000 Active 85 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,000 Active 84 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $179,000 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $179,000 Active 79 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,000 Active 78 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,000 Active 77 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,000 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $179,000 Active 72 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 71 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 69 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 68 DOM
16. 2026-03-23
    listed $185,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (629 chars)

    Cozy country living in this well-kept single-wide manufactured home featuring 2 bedrooms and 2 full baths. Nestled in a peaceful rural setting, it offers an open-concept living room and kitchen, plenty of natural light, and just the right amount of space for low maintenance living. Step outside to enjoy quiet mornings on the porch. Plenty of room to grow a garden, and the feel of rural living while still being a short drive to town amenities. Affordable, low maintenance, and move in ready, this property is ideal as a starter home, downsizing option, or weekend country retreat. Includes appliances (washer/dryer too!)

17. 2026-03-23
    listed $185,000 Active 629-char remark

    Show marketing remark (629 chars)

    Cozy country living in this well-kept single-wide manufactured home featuring 2 bedrooms and 2 full baths. Nestled in a peaceful rural setting, it offers an open-concept living room and kitchen, plenty of natural light, and just the right amount of space for low maintenance living. Step outside to enjoy quiet mornings on the porch. Plenty of room to grow a garden, and the feel of rural living while still being a short drive to town amenities. Affordable, low maintenance, and move in ready, this property is ideal as a starter home, downsizing option, or weekend country retreat. Includes appliances (washer/dryer too!)

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,093
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$2,685
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,367
• − Management: −$1,367
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable loss: −$4,456
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,069
• After-tax cash flow: $-271/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrison County
• NCES district ID: 2102580
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -19.00%
• Median HH income: $39,744
• Composite: 22.28/100
• National rank: #8138
• State rank: #133 of 165 in KY

Livability — Cynthiana

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #113
• US rank: #4911

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 16,748

Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,605 people
• By 2030: 18,361 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 17,685 · -4.9%
• By 2050: 16,845 · -9.5%
• By 2075: 14,882 · -20.0%
• By 2100: 12,314 · -33.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harrison

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.5) · D 25.1% · R 73.6% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.4pp toward R · 2008: -21.1pp · 2024: -48.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.5 2020: R+44.4 2016: R+43.8 2012: R+29.1 2008: R+21.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.31%
• Current HPI: 339.482
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Listed $185,000 NKMLS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $185,000 ImagineMLS

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2019): $237 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.