9 Sawdust Ln

Palm Coast, FL 32137

$404,445F

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,499 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Pending · 41 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,566/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,121
• Tax + insurance: −$432
• HOA: −$20
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$539
• Net cashflow: $-546/mo
• Annual: $-6,549/yr
• Cap rate: 4.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.78%
• DSCR: 0.74
• 1% rule: 0.63%
• Cash to close: $113,245

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $404k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-546 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $308k (23.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (36.5% below list).
• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($392k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $257k (36.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#478 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Flagler (rural): math 53% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #20 of 73 in FL (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Belle Terre Elementary School (math 64% / reading 64%, grade B, #552 of 2,144 statewide, top 26%, 1,190 students, 58% FRL); Indian Trails Middle School (math 64% / reading 59%, grade B+, #124 of 571 statewide, top 22%, 1,518 students, 50% FRL); Matanzas High School (math 36% / reading 53%, grade F, #237 of 667 statewide, top 36%, 1,978 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1616 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,588 units permitted in Flagler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Flagler County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.8% in Palm Coast — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.