9 Sawdust Ln · Palm Coast, FL 32137

$404,445

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,499 sqft · Land · 41 Days on market

Built 2026 5,000 sqft lot $20/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Hayden II is a spacious and thoughtfully designed two-story home offering approximately 2,499 square feet of flexible living space with five bedrooms, three full bathrooms, and a two-car garage, making it an excellent choice for growing or multi-generational households. As you enter the home, you are welcomed by a bright front den that works beautifully as a home office, study, or quiet sitting area. The main living space opens into a generous gathering room that connects seamlessly to the dining nook and kitchen, creating an ideal layout for both daily life and entertaining. The kitchen is designed as the center of the home, featuring a large island that provides plenty of room for meal preparation, casual dining, and gathering with family and guests. A private bedroom and full bathroom on the first floor offer a convenient space for overnight visitors or a dedicated workspace. Upstairs, the oversized primary suite serves as a relaxing retreat.

Key facts

• Private bedroom
• Large island
• Bright front den

Tags

• BRIGHT FRONT DEN
• GENEROUS GATHERING ROOM
• LARGE ISLAND
• PRIVATE BEDROOM
• OVERSIZED PRIMARY SUITE
• SPA INSPIRED BATHROOM

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $404k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-546 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $308k (23.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (36.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $257k (36.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.8% in Palm Coast — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#478 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Flagler (rural): math 53% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #20 of 73 in FL (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Belle Terre Elementary School (math 64% / reading 64%, grade B, #552 of 2,144 statewide, top 26%, 1,190 students, 58% FRL); Indian Trails Middle School (math 64% / reading 59%, grade B+, #124 of 571 statewide, top 22%, 1,518 students, 50% FRL); Matanzas High School (math 36% / reading 53%, grade F, #237 of 667 statewide, top 36%, 1,978 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1616 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,588 units permitted in Flagler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Flagler County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($392k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $256,646 (36.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.78%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-105,830
• Equity at exit: $60,304

10-year hold

• IRR: -37.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.40×
• Total profit: $-158,672
• Equity at exit: $34,969

Cash invested: $113,245 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32137

• Home prices YoY: -34.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 1616
• Price-to-rent: 13.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,566 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,121
• Tax from tax record: −$264 /mo · $3,165/yr
• Insurance: −$169
• HOA: −$20
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$539
• Net cashflow: $-546

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,257

Max offer price $308,036

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-317	-5% $-431	+0% $-546	+5% $-660	+10% $-775
Rent	-10% $-749	-5% $-647	+0% $-546	+5% $-444	+10% $-343
Rate	-1.0pp $-342	-0.5pp $-443	base $-546	+0.5pp $-651	+1.0pp $-757

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $101,111
• Closing costs: $12,133
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
106 La Mancha Dr Palm Coast, FL	4.0	2.0	1640	$1,900	$1.16	25d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $20 · $240/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (963 chars)

   The Hayden II is a spacious and thoughtfully designed two-story home offering approximately 2,499 square feet of flexible living space with five bedrooms, three full bathrooms, and a two-car garage, making it an excellent choice for growing or multi-generational households. As you enter the home, you are welcomed by a bright front den that works beautifully as a home office, study, or quiet sitting area. The main living space opens into a generous gathering room that connects seamlessly to the dining nook and kitchen, creating an ideal layout for both daily life and entertaining. The kitchen is designed as the center of the home, featuring a large island that provides plenty of room for meal preparation, casual dining, and gathering with family and guests. A private bedroom and full bathroom on the first floor offer a convenient space for overnight visitors or a dedicated workspace. Upstairs, the oversized primary suite serves as a relaxing retreat.

2. 2026-04-27
   status Pending 963-char remark

   Show marketing remark (963 chars)

   The Hayden II is a spacious and thoughtfully designed two-story home offering approximately 2,499 square feet of flexible living space with five bedrooms, three full bathrooms, and a two-car garage, making it an excellent choice for growing or multi-generational households. As you enter the home, you are welcomed by a bright front den that works beautifully as a home office, study, or quiet sitting area. The main living space opens into a generous gathering room that connects seamlessly to the dining nook and kitchen, creating an ideal layout for both daily life and entertaining. The kitchen is designed as the center of the home, featuring a large island that provides plenty of room for meal preparation, casual dining, and gathering with family and guests. A private bedroom and full bathroom on the first floor offer a convenient space for overnight visitors or a dedicated workspace. Upstairs, the oversized primary suite serves as a relaxing retreat.

3. 2026-04-21
   price $404,445

   Show marketing remark (963 chars)

   The Hayden II is a spacious and thoughtfully designed two-story home offering approximately 2,499 square feet of flexible living space with five bedrooms, three full bathrooms, and a two-car garage, making it an excellent choice for growing or multi-generational households. As you enter the home, you are welcomed by a bright front den that works beautifully as a home office, study, or quiet sitting area. The main living space opens into a generous gathering room that connects seamlessly to the dining nook and kitchen, creating an ideal layout for both daily life and entertaining. The kitchen is designed as the center of the home, featuring a large island that provides plenty of room for meal preparation, casual dining, and gathering with family and guests. A private bedroom and full bathroom on the first floor offer a convenient space for overnight visitors or a dedicated workspace. Upstairs, the oversized primary suite serves as a relaxing retreat.

4. 2026-04-21
   price $404,445 963-char remark

   Show marketing remark (963 chars)

   The Hayden II is a spacious and thoughtfully designed two-story home offering approximately 2,499 square feet of flexible living space with five bedrooms, three full bathrooms, and a two-car garage, making it an excellent choice for growing or multi-generational households. As you enter the home, you are welcomed by a bright front den that works beautifully as a home office, study, or quiet sitting area. The main living space opens into a generous gathering room that connects seamlessly to the dining nook and kitchen, creating an ideal layout for both daily life and entertaining. The kitchen is designed as the center of the home, featuring a large island that provides plenty of room for meal preparation, casual dining, and gathering with family and guests. A private bedroom and full bathroom on the first floor offer a convenient space for overnight visitors or a dedicated workspace. Upstairs, the oversized primary suite serves as a relaxing retreat.

5. 2026-04-14
   price $401,945

   Show marketing remark (963 chars)

   The Hayden II is a spacious and thoughtfully designed two-story home offering approximately 2,499 square feet of flexible living space with five bedrooms, three full bathrooms, and a two-car garage, making it an excellent choice for growing or multi-generational households. As you enter the home, you are welcomed by a bright front den that works beautifully as a home office, study, or quiet sitting area. The main living space opens into a generous gathering room that connects seamlessly to the dining nook and kitchen, creating an ideal layout for both daily life and entertaining. The kitchen is designed as the center of the home, featuring a large island that provides plenty of room for meal preparation, casual dining, and gathering with family and guests. A private bedroom and full bathroom on the first floor offer a convenient space for overnight visitors or a dedicated workspace. Upstairs, the oversized primary suite serves as a relaxing retreat.

6. 2026-04-14
   price $401,945 963-char remark

   Show marketing remark (963 chars)

   The Hayden II is a spacious and thoughtfully designed two-story home offering approximately 2,499 square feet of flexible living space with five bedrooms, three full bathrooms, and a two-car garage, making it an excellent choice for growing or multi-generational households. As you enter the home, you are welcomed by a bright front den that works beautifully as a home office, study, or quiet sitting area. The main living space opens into a generous gathering room that connects seamlessly to the dining nook and kitchen, creating an ideal layout for both daily life and entertaining. The kitchen is designed as the center of the home, featuring a large island that provides plenty of room for meal preparation, casual dining, and gathering with family and guests. A private bedroom and full bathroom on the first floor offer a convenient space for overnight visitors or a dedicated workspace. Upstairs, the oversized primary suite serves as a relaxing retreat.

7. 2026-04-07
   price $396,535

   Show marketing remark (963 chars)

   The Hayden II is a spacious and thoughtfully designed two-story home offering approximately 2,499 square feet of flexible living space with five bedrooms, three full bathrooms, and a two-car garage, making it an excellent choice for growing or multi-generational households. As you enter the home, you are welcomed by a bright front den that works beautifully as a home office, study, or quiet sitting area. The main living space opens into a generous gathering room that connects seamlessly to the dining nook and kitchen, creating an ideal layout for both daily life and entertaining. The kitchen is designed as the center of the home, featuring a large island that provides plenty of room for meal preparation, casual dining, and gathering with family and guests. A private bedroom and full bathroom on the first floor offer a convenient space for overnight visitors or a dedicated workspace. Upstairs, the oversized primary suite serves as a relaxing retreat.

8. 2026-04-07
   price $396,535 963-char remark

   Show marketing remark (963 chars)

   The Hayden II is a spacious and thoughtfully designed two-story home offering approximately 2,499 square feet of flexible living space with five bedrooms, three full bathrooms, and a two-car garage, making it an excellent choice for growing or multi-generational households. As you enter the home, you are welcomed by a bright front den that works beautifully as a home office, study, or quiet sitting area. The main living space opens into a generous gathering room that connects seamlessly to the dining nook and kitchen, creating an ideal layout for both daily life and entertaining. The kitchen is designed as the center of the home, featuring a large island that provides plenty of room for meal preparation, casual dining, and gathering with family and guests. A private bedroom and full bathroom on the first floor offer a convenient space for overnight visitors or a dedicated workspace. Upstairs, the oversized primary suite serves as a relaxing retreat.

9. 2026-03-17
   listed $394,035 Active

   Show marketing remark (963 chars)

   The Hayden II is a spacious and thoughtfully designed two-story home offering approximately 2,499 square feet of flexible living space with five bedrooms, three full bathrooms, and a two-car garage, making it an excellent choice for growing or multi-generational households. As you enter the home, you are welcomed by a bright front den that works beautifully as a home office, study, or quiet sitting area. The main living space opens into a generous gathering room that connects seamlessly to the dining nook and kitchen, creating an ideal layout for both daily life and entertaining. The kitchen is designed as the center of the home, featuring a large island that provides plenty of room for meal preparation, casual dining, and gathering with family and guests. A private bedroom and full bathroom on the first floor offer a convenient space for overnight visitors or a dedicated workspace. Upstairs, the oversized primary suite serves as a relaxing retreat.

10. 2026-03-17
    listed $394,035 Active 963-char remark

    Show marketing remark (963 chars)

    The Hayden II is a spacious and thoughtfully designed two-story home offering approximately 2,499 square feet of flexible living space with five bedrooms, three full bathrooms, and a two-car garage, making it an excellent choice for growing or multi-generational households. As you enter the home, you are welcomed by a bright front den that works beautifully as a home office, study, or quiet sitting area. The main living space opens into a generous gathering room that connects seamlessly to the dining nook and kitchen, creating an ideal layout for both daily life and entertaining. The kitchen is designed as the center of the home, featuring a large island that provides plenty of room for meal preparation, casual dining, and gathering with family and guests. A private bedroom and full bathroom on the first floor offer a convenient space for overnight visitors or a dedicated workspace. Upstairs, the oversized primary suite serves as a relaxing retreat.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,165 · $264/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,357 · $280/mo
• Expected delta: +$191/yr (+$16/mo · 6.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,798
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,655
• − Property taxes: −$3,165
• − Insurance: −$2,022
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,464
• − Management: −$2,464
• − HOA: −$240
• − Depreciation: −$11,766
• Taxable loss: −$13,979
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,355
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,194/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flagler
• NCES district ID: 1200540
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,354
• Composite: 46.35/100
• National rank: #2464
• State rank: #20 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Coast

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #478
• US rank: #8721

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm Coast, FL
• County: Flagler County · 113,412 people
• City population: 105,049
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 48,391
• Household income: $83,923
• Rent vs Own: 13.6% rent · 86.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 816.0

Population outlook (Flagler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,474 people
• By 2030: 131,864 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 146,176 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 157,398 · +27.5%
• By 2075: 177,990 · +44.2%
• By 2100: 183,381 · +48.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Black 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Russian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Flagler

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.2) · D 35.6% · R 63.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: -28.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.2 2020: R+20.8 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -153.27%
• Current HPI: 290.4607
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.85%
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $404,445 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $404,445 realMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $401,945 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $401,945 realMLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $396,535 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $396,535 realMLS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $394,035 realMLS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $394,035 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+15.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,165 · +15.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.