324 Kaanapali Ln

Bastrop, TX 78602

$260,000D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,518 sqft · Built 2012 · SingleFamily · Pending · 28 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,088/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax + insurance: −$503
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $-217/mo
• Annual: $-2,598/yr
• Cap rate: 5.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.57%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $72,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-217 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $222k (14.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (19.7% below list).
• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($256k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $209k (19.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#947 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities D, employment D, crime F.
• Bastrop ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #670 of 826 in TX (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.0%/yr); 1072 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,841 units permitted in Bastrop County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bastrop County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.2% in Bastrop — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.