Canary Plan

Mascotte, FL 34736

$346,999F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,603 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 161 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,272/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,842
• Tax + insurance: −$586
• HOA: −$117
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$477
• Net cashflow: $-750/mo
• Annual: $-9,002/yr
• Cap rate: 3.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.15%
• DSCR: 0.59
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $98,373

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $347k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-750 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (30.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (34.5% below list).
• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($305k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $227k (34.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#405 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Groveland Elementary School (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,854 of 2,144 statewide, top 87%, 744 students, 63% FRL); Gray Middle School (math 45% / reading 45%, grade D, #310 of 571 statewide, top 56%, 1,148 students, 47% FRL); South Lake High School (math 36% / reading 39%, grade F, #336 of 667 statewide, top 51%, 2,169 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 785 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 63d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($91k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.