Canary Plan · Mascotte, FL 34736

$346,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,603 sqft · SingleFamily · 206 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage $117/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.4/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Canary is truly a remarkable floor plan featuring 1,603 square feet of open-concept living space with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a flex room, 2-car garage, and more! Through the foyer lies a flex space, leading to the kitchen area. Two bedrooms are off the kitchen, while your primary suite lies in the rear of the home off of the great room. Plus, a patio completes the home for true indoor/outdoor living, perfect for entertaining guests and enjoying the warm Florida weather.

Key facts

• Flex room
• Patio
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING SPACE
• FLEX ROOM
• PATIO
• INDOOR OUTDOOR LIVING

🏗️ New construction. The $346,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $360,820.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $347k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-792 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $246k (29.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (33.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $230k (33.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 4.6% in Mascotte — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#405 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Groveland Elementary School (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,854 of 2,144 statewide, top 87%, 744 students, 63% FRL); Gray Middle School (math 45% / reading 45%, grade D, #310 of 571 statewide, top 56%, 1,148 students, 47% FRL); South Lake High School (math 36% / reading 39%, grade F, #336 of 667 statewide, top 51%, 2,169 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 855 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 38d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($91k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 206 days — a 12% lower offer ($305k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $230,252 (33.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 206 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.40%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $360,820
• List price: $346,999
• Delta: -3.83%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
387 Cornerstone Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,603 (0%)	2mo	$309,214	$193	91
7714 Marble St	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (-0%)	0mo	$326,740	$204	91
390 Cornerstone Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,603 (0%)	2mo	$333,314	$208	91
616 Channel Way	0.14mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (-0%)	0mo	$317,740	$199	88
278 Ceramic Ln	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (-0%)	0mo	$324,465	$203	82
270 Ceramic Ln	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (-0%)	0mo	$330,891	$207	81
286 Ceramic Ct	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,424 (-11%)	0mo	$299,990	$211	78
383 Cornerstone Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,453 (-9%)	1mo	$333,000	$229	77
7726 Marble St	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,424 (-11%)	1mo	$322,990	$227	74
237 Streamwater Way	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,813 (+13%)	2mo	$359,000	$198	69
224 Streamwater Way	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,813 (+13%)	0mo	$369,451	$204	69
453 Ironside Trail Dr	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,812 (+13%)	0mo	$313,000	$173	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-111,817
• Equity at exit: $53,799

10-year hold

• IRR: -54.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.72×
• Total profit: $-174,001
• Equity at exit: $31,197

Cash invested: $101,030 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 35 active · 44 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.2 mo (16%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $369,000 ($199/sqft)
• Median days on market: 76 d
• This list price: 37% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +13.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34736

• Home prices YoY: -22.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 855
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,303 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,892
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$451 /mo · $5,412/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$117
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$484
• Net cashflow: $-792

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,304

Max offer price $246,281

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-542	-5% $-667	+0% $-792	+5% $-916	+10% $-1,041
Rent	-10% $-973	-5% $-883	+0% $-792	+5% $-701	+10% $-610
Rate	-1.0pp $-610	-0.5pp $-700	base $-792	+0.5pp $-885	+1.0pp $-980

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $90,205
• Closing costs: $10,825
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7629 Waterscape Dr Groveland, FL	3.0	2.5	1404	$1,890	$1.35	31d	1	0.13mi
7633 Waterscape DR Groveland, FL	3.0	2.5	1558	$2,000	$1.28	55d	1	0.13mi
7867 Autumn Birch Dr Groveland, FL	4.0	2.0	1984	$2,550	$1.29	3d	1	0.20mi
515 Moonstone Ct Groveland, FL	3.0	2.5	1405	$1,895	$1.35	10d	1	0.20mi
7412 Capstone Dr Groveland, FL	4.0	2.0	1848	$2,400	$1.30	10d	1	0.33mi
7201 Big Cedar Aly Groveland, FL	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,000	$1.33	164d	1	0.47mi
338 Ridgemark Ave Groveland, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,300	$1.26	145d	1	0.51mi
253 Luxmore Rd Groveland, FL	3.0	2.0	1547	$2,100	$1.36	72d	1	0.68mi
201 Sangmon Ct Groveland, FL	3.0	2.5	1920	$2,149	$1.12	115d	1	0.82mi
2038 Sloans Outlook Dr Groveland, FL	3.0	2.5	1941	$2,189	$1.13	18d	1	1.03mi
6612 Tempo Way Mascotte, FL	3.0	2.0	1990	$2,600	$1.31	145d	1	1.13mi
6612 Tempo Way Groveland, FL	3.0	2.0	1990	$2,395	$1.20	128d	1	1.13mi
18550 Lake Emma Dr Groveland, FL	3.0	2.0	2122	$2,600	$1.23	37d	1	1.15mi
2009 Sloans Outlook Dr Groveland, FL	3.0	2.0	1670	$2,300	$1.38	23d	1	1.17mi
6469 Quartet St Mascotte, FL	4.0	2.0	1998	$2,500	$1.25	10d	1	1.26mi
6469 Quartet St Mascotte, FL	4.0	2.0	1998	$2,500	$1.25	23d	1	1.26mi
6466 Octave St Mascotte, FL	3.0	2.0	1746	$2,250	$1.29	10d	1	1.30mi
6422 Quartet St Unit Na Mascotte, FL	3.0	2.0	1766	$2,395	$1.36	52d	1	1.35mi
1802 Perch Hammock Loop Groveland, FL	4.0	2.0	1841	$2,500	$1.36	1d	1	1.40mi
6390 Chorus Dr Mascotte, FL	4.0	3.0	2178	$2,700	$1.24	3d	1	1.40mi
6337 Chorus Dr Groveland, FL	3.0	2.0	1772	$2,250	$1.27	164d	1	1.43mi
6336 Chorus Dr Mascotte, FL	4.0	2.0	1994	$2,390	$1.20	107d	1	1.45mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price: $346,999Status: Active

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Located at 7677 Gemstone St, Groveland FL 34736
• Exterior features: Living area: 1603

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: CanaryNew construction inventory type: Plan

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $346,999 Active 206 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $346,999 Active 205 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $346,999 Active 204 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $346,999 Active 203 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $346,999 Active 202 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $346,999 Active 200 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $346,999 Active 199 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $346,999 Active 198 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $346,999 Active 197 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $346,999 Active 196 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $346,999 Active 195 DOM
12. 2026-10-26
    days on market $346,999 Active 193 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $346,999 Active 192 DOM
14. 2026-10-24
    days on market $346,999 Active 191 DOM
15. 2026-10-23
    days on market $346,999 Active 190 DOM
16. 2026-10-22
    days on market $346,999 Active 189 DOM
17. 2026-10-21
    days on market $346,999 Active 188 DOM
18. 2026-10-20
    days on market $346,999 Active 187 DOM
19. 2026-10-19
    days on market $346,999 Active 186 DOM
20. 2026-10-18
    days on market $346,999 Active 185 DOM
21. 2026-10-17
    days on market $346,999 Active 184 DOM
22. 2026-10-16
    days on market $346,999 Active 183 DOM
23. 2026-10-15
    days on market $346,999 Active 182 DOM
24. 2026-10-14
    days on market $346,999 Active 181 DOM
25. 2026-10-13
    days on market $346,999 Active 180 DOM
26. 2026-10-12
    days on market $346,999 Active 179 DOM
27. 2026-10-11
    days on market $346,999 Active 178 DOM
28. 2026-10-10
    days on market $346,999 Active 177 DOM
29. 2026-10-09
    days on market $346,999 Active 176 DOM
30. 2026-10-08
    days on market $346,999 Active 175 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $346,999 Active 174 DOM
32. 2026-10-06
    days on market $346,999 Active 173 DOM
33. 2026-10-05
    days on market $346,999 Active 172 DOM
34. 2026-10-04
    days on market $346,999 Active 171 DOM
35. 2026-10-03
    days on market $346,999 Active 170 DOM
36. 2026-10-02
    days on market $346,999 Active 169 DOM
37. 2026-10-01
    days on market $346,999 Active 168 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $346,999 Active 167 DOM
39. 2026-09-29
    days on market $346,999 Active 166 DOM
40. 2026-09-28
    days on market $346,999 Active 165 DOM
41. 2026-09-27
    days on market $346,999 Active 164 DOM
42. 2026-09-25
    days on market $346,999 Active 162 DOM
43. 2026-09-24
    days on market $346,999 Active 161 DOM
44. 2026-09-23
    days on market $346,999 Active 160 DOM
45. 2026-09-22
    days on market $346,999 Active 159 DOM
46. 2026-09-21
    days on market $346,999 Active 158 DOM
47. 2026-09-20
    days on market $346,999 Active 157 DOM
48. 2026-09-19
    days on market $346,999 Active 156 DOM
49. 2026-09-18
    days on market $346,999 Active 155 DOM
50. 2026-09-17
    days on market $346,999 Active 154 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,630
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,212
• − Property taxes: −$5,412
• − Insurance: −$1,804
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,210
• − Management: −$2,210
• − HOA: −$1,404
• − Depreciation: −$10,497
• Taxable loss: −$16,119
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,869
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,630/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in good condition with no major repairs needed. It has a good curb appeal and is move-in ready.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Clean and maintain landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping improves curb appeal and can attract more buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Inspect and clean gutters — Clean gutters prevent water damage and improve the home's overall appearance, benefiting both resale and rental value. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Groveland Elementary School F FL #1,854/2,144 Nat'l #26,096/41,679 Middle Gray Middle School D FL #310/571 Nat'l #4,622/14,009 High South Lake High School F FL #336/667 Nat'l #8,937/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 71/100

Livability — Mascotte

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #405
• US rank: #7156

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mascotte, FL
• County: Lake County · 386,640 people
• City population: 33,565
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 28,001
• Household income: $90,545
• Rent vs Own: 11.3% rent · 88.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 0% of renters

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Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 17% Black 15% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 15% Cuban 2%
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.23%
• Current HPI: 265.3457
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.67%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price: $346,999Status: Active

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Located at 7677 Gemstone St, Groveland FL 34736
• Exterior features: Living area: 1603

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: CanaryNew construction inventory type: Plan