504 Locust St

Vine Grove, KY 40175

$159,900C

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 744 sqft · Built 1963 · SingleFamily · Pending · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,699/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $382/mo
• Annual: $4,582/yr
• Cap rate: 9.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.23%
• DSCR: 1.46
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $44,772

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $382 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $158k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#124 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hardin County (suburban): math 30% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #47 of 165 in KY (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Vine Grove Elementary School (math 33% / reading 34%, grade F, #334 of 676 statewide, top 50%, 511 students, 50% FRL); James T Alton Middle School (math 29% / reading 46%, grade F, #73 of 217 statewide, top 36%, 666 students, 46% FRL); North Hardin High School (math 26% / reading 33%, grade F, #127 of 254 statewide, top 58%, 1,651 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 155 active listings in the ZIP; 946 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (464 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hardin County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $160k implies a 145% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 4.0% in Vine Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.