271 Estes Rd

Clay City, KY 40312

$80,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Built 1978 · Other · Active · 72 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $996/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax + insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$209
• Net cashflow: $234/mo
• Annual: $2,811/yr
• Cap rate: 9.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.55%
• DSCR: 1.56
• 1% rule: 1.25%
• Cash to close: $22,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $80k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $234 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($996 rent vs $80k).
• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $75k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#428 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Powell County (rural): math 14% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #156 of 165 in KY (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Powell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Powell County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $80k implies a 452% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 3.4% in Clay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.