271 Estes Rd · Clay City, KY 40312

$80,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Other · 72 Days on market

Built 1978 1.01 ac lot $82/sqft · 52% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.4/30.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

**271 Estes Road, Clay City, KY - Country Living on 1 Acre** Looking for a peaceful country setting with room to make it your own? This 3-bedroom, 2-bath older mobile home sits on a spacious 1-acre lot in the quiet countryside of Clay City. The home features both front and rear covered porches—perfect for enjoying morning coffee or relaxing evenings surrounded by nature. Inside, a new subfloor has already been installed, giving you a solid start for renovations. The property does need some additional work, making it a great opportunity for investors (mobile home being sold AS-IS), DIY enthusiasts, or buyers looking to customize their home. Outside, you'll find a large shed that provides ample storage space for tools, equipment, or hobbies. Conveniently located approximately 15 miles from the Red River Gorge, this property offers easy access to hiking, climbing, and outdoor adventure while still maintaining a private, rural feel. **Property Highlights:** * 3 Bedrooms / 2 Bathrooms * 1 Acre Lot * Front & Rear Covered Porches * Large Storage Shed * New Subfloor Installed * Quiet Country Setting * ~15 Miles to Red River Gorge If you're looking for an affordable property with potential in a beautiful natural setting, this could be the perfect fit.

Key facts

• Large storage shed
• 1.01 acre lot
• Built 1978

Tags

• FRONT AND REAR COVERED PORCHES
• LARGE STORAGE SHED
• NEW SUBFLOOR INSTALLED
• EASY ACCESS TO HIKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $234 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($996 rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 3.4% in Clay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#428 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Powell County (rural): math 14% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #156 of 165 in KY (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Powell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Powell County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $80k implies a 452% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,200 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.55%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $166,877
• List price: $80,000
• Delta: -52.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $1,971
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.94×
• Total profit: $20,989
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40312

• Home prices YoY: -4.4%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $996 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,200/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$209
• Net cashflow: $234

Break-even live

Break-even rent $700

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $290	-5% $262	+0% $234	+5% $207	+10% $179
Rent	-10% $156	-5% $195	+0% $234	+5% $274	+10% $313
Rate	-1.0pp $275	-0.5pp $255	base $234	+0.5pp $214	+1.0pp $192

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $80,000 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $80,000 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $80,000 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $80,000 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $80,000 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $80,000 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $80,000 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 53 DOM
16. 2026-04-03
    listed $99,000 Active 1279-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1279 chars)

    **271 Estes Road, Clay City, KY - Country Living on 1 Acre** Looking for a peaceful country setting with room to make it your own? This 3-bedroom, 2-bath older mobile home sits on a spacious 1-acre lot in the quiet countryside of Clay City. The home features both front and rear covered porches—perfect for enjoying morning coffee or relaxing evenings surrounded by nature. Inside, a new subfloor has already been installed, giving you a solid start for renovations. The property does need some additional work, making it a great opportunity for investors (mobile home being sold AS-IS), DIY enthusiasts, or buyers looking to customize their home. Outside, you'll find a large shed that provides ample storage space for tools, equipment, or hobbies. Conveniently located approximately 15 miles from the Red River Gorge, this property offers easy access to hiking, climbing, and outdoor adventure while still maintaining a private, rural feel. **Property Highlights:** * 3 Bedrooms / 2 Bathrooms * 1 Acre Lot * Front & Rear Covered Porches * Large Storage Shed * New Subfloor Installed * Quiet Country Setting * ~15 Miles to Red River Gorge If you're looking for an affordable property with potential in a beautiful natural setting, this could be the perfect fit.

17. 2008-09-24
    soldstatus $14,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,956
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$1,200
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$956
• − Management: −$956
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $1,635
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$392
• After-tax cash flow: $2,419/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Powell County
• NCES district ID: 2104890
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -19.00%
• Median HH income: $31,309
• Composite: 18.13/100
• National rank: #8967
• State rank: #156 of 165 in KY

Livability — Clay City

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #428
• US rank: #20794

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,156

Population outlook (Powell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,535 people
• By 2030: 11,076 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 10,174 · -11.8%
• By 2050: 9,307 · -19.3%
• By 2075: 7,369 · -36.1%
• By 2100: 5,806 · -49.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Powell

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.4) · D 21.9% · R 76.3% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -38.9pp toward R · 2008: -15.5pp · 2024: -54.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.4 2020: R+48.6 2016: R+45.2 2012: R+24.9 2008: R+15.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.83%
• Current HPI: 192.7678
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+582.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Listed $99,000 ImagineMLS
• 2008-09-24 Sold (Public Records) $14,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $131 · -42.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.