2 bd · 1.5 ba ·
870 sqft ·
Built 1964
· MultiFamily
· Active
· 88 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$4,523/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,359
Tax + insurance
−$750
HOA
−$275
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$950
Net cashflow
$190/mo
Annual
$2,276/yr
Cap rate
6.80%
Cash-on-cash
1.81%
DSCR
1.08
1% rule
1.01%
Cash to close
$125,944
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath multifamily listed at $450k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $190 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $450k).
It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($423k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $423k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 55/100 on livability (#871 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
Santa Ana Unified (urban): math 23% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #329 of 517 in CA (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Greenville Fundamental Elementary (math 32% / reading 36%, grade F, #755 of 1,571 statewide, top 49%, 907 students, 66% FRL); Gonzalo Felicitas Mendez Fundamental Intermediate (1,293 students, 76% FRL); Hector G. Godinez (math 31% / reading 51%, grade F, #502 of 1,170 statewide, top 43%, 2,026 students, 72% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 91 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 66d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).
Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
4 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 2.6% in Santa Ana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $4,523/mo this rent would consume 77% of the median local household income ($71k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Minor: Kitchen backsplash
— Some wear and discoloration.
Minor: Bathroom walls
— Some discoloration and minor wear.
Minor: Exterior siding
— Some discoloration and minor wear.
Minor: Kitchen countertops
— Some wear and discoloration.
Minor: Interior walls
— Paint chipped in some areas.
Minor: Windows
— Some frames show signs of wear.
CashFlowRE · CFR-HB0CQ5AJJAXW1P
· Data 2 months agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29